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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.46: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply.... Read more

$31.46+34.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#9 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.11%
IncomeYield3.03%(5y avg 1.57%)Payout45.81%sustainable
Stop $29.26Target $42.27(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$46.96+49.3%27 analysts
$42.27our TP
$31.46price
$46.96mean
$60

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.46: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Tractor Supply Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 34%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$16.6B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE45.5%
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta0.50
Dividend3.03%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.16bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$47+49.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.4
Revenue Growth
3.4
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.42Resistance $40.14

Price Targets

$29
$42
A.Upside+34.4%
A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.46: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $29.26. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the TSCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.27 (+34.3% upside). Prior stop was $29.26. Stop-loss: $29.26.

What are the risks of investing in TSCO?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5.

Is TSCO overvalued or undervalued?

Tractor Supply Company trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSCO?

37 analysts cover TSCO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Tractor Supply Company do?The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the...

The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Our stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. We also offer an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at Tract

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