Tractor Supply Company trades at a significant discount to analyst targets with 34% upside and a 4.89x risk/reward ratio, supported by a 46% ROE, but consecutive earnings misses in the last two quarters and a confirmed death cross technical pattern create near-term execution and sentiment risk.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern↓Deteriorating
- High Roe Business Quality→Stable
- Large Analyst Upside Attractive Rr↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026· older than 90 days
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply.... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 21, 2026Recent Developments — Tractor Supply Company
Latest news
- NEWS Tractor Supply (TSCO) Q3 Earnings: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Truist raises target for Tractor Supply stock to USD 33 from USD 32 - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS Oct 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS Truist raises target for Tractor Supply stock to USD 33 from USD 32 - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) Stock Now Rated "Hold" by Wall Street Brokerages - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Tractor Supply Co. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch Oct 14, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:10:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-07Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Tractor Supply Company (the "Company") approved the following equity grants to J.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $35.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $32.64. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $33.67 reached (−4.1% from $35.10); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $32.64. Stop-loss: $32.64.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Tractor Supply Company trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
37 analysts rate TSCO, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 27 analysts publish price targets averaging $37.
What does Tractor Supply Company do?The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the...
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Our stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. We also offer an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at Tract