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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply.... Read more

$34.72+23.3% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#15 of 18 Specialty Retail
Stop $33.34Target $42.77(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$47.52+36.9%27 analysts
$42.77our TP
$34.72price
$47.52mean
$60

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 7, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative news sentiment (-0.89)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$18.3B
EV/EBITDA12.5
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE45.5%
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta0.75
Dividend2.76%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$55+58.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 7, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.4
Revenue Growth
3.4
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
7 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $34.37Resistance $45.99

Price Targets

$33
$43
A.Upside+23.2%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.72 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 7, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $33.34. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the TSCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.77 (+23.3% upside). Prior stop was $33.34. Stop-loss: $33.34.

What are the risks of investing in TSCO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.89).

Is TSCO overvalued or undervalued?

Tractor Supply Company trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSCO?

37 analysts cover TSCO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Tractor Supply Company do?The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the...

The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Our stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. We also offer an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at Tract

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