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TROXTronox Holdings plcSell3.9·$6.05+0.33%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Tronox Holdings has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with average EPS surprise of -72.8%, carries high short interest of 18%, and burns cash at -6% of revenue, but a recent cluster of 6 analyst upgrades provides a tentative catalyst signal amid otherwise bearish data.

Thesis pillars

  • Sustained Earnings Miss PatternStable
  • Cash Burn Quality ConcernsStable
  • High Short Interest JustifiedStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) Stock Analysis

SellValueShortHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.05: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.75; Below-average business quality.

Tronox is the world's leading vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment. We operate titanium-bearing mineral sand mines and beneficiation and smelting operations in Australia and South Africa to produce feedstock materials that can be processed into TiO2 for pigment,... Read more

$6.05+13.3% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#15 of 15 Chemicals
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-18.94%
IncomeYield3.22%(5y avg 4.37%)Payout15.58%sustainable
Stop $5.66Target $6.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$7.88+30.2%8 analysts
$6.85our TP
$6.05price
$7.88mean
$4
$11

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.05: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — Tronox Holdings plc

Generated 2026-07-07T17:52:39Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-35.9
Mkt Cap$991M
EV/EBITDA19.0
Profit Mgn-15.8%
ROE-30.8%
Rev Growth3.0%
Beta0.78
Dividend3.22%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C5.75bearish
IV108%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
8.3
Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
2.6
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+8.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Volatile — 7.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
1.8
Debt Equity
2.3
Days To Cover
2.4
Beta
8.3
High short interest justified: 17%Elevated put/call: 5.75High IV: 108%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 322.0%

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
12 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.84Resistance $8.36

Price Targets

$6
$7
A.Upside+13.2%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TROX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.05: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.66. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the TROX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.85 (+13.3% upside). Prior stop was $5.66. Stop-loss: $5.66.

What are the risks of investing in TROX?

Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is TROX overvalued or undervalued?

Tronox Holdings plc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -35.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TROX?

14 analysts cover TROX with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Tronox Holdings plc do?Tronox is the world's leading vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment. We operate titanium-bearing mineral...

Tronox is the world's leading vertically integrated manufacturer of TiO2 pigment. We operate titanium-bearing mineral sand mines and beneficiation and smelting operations in Australia and South Africa to produce feedstock materials that can be processed into TiO2 for pigment, high purity titanium chemicals, including titanium tetrachloride, and ultrafine TiO2 used in certain specialty applications.

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Latest news

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