Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Analysis
Temp Headwind edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $369.34 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced..
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is one of the largest landowners in Texas with approximately 882,000 surface acres principally in the Permian Basin, earning oil and gas royalties and providing water services through TPWR. Oil royalties ($305M) represented 52% of 2025 consolidated... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $369.34 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=5.2x,ratio=0.10x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Texas Pacific (TPL) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Atlas Wealth Partners LLC Raises Stock Position in Texas Pacific Land Corporation $TPL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Annex Advisory Services LLC Takes Position in Texas Pacific Land Corporation $TPL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS WINTON GROUP Ltd Has $1.15 Million Stock Position in Texas Pacific Land Corporation $TPL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Time to Buy the Dip on Texas Pacific Land Stock? - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $369.34 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $350.36. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $378.25 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $350.36. Stop-loss: $350.36.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation trades at a P/E of 52.0 (forward 5.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover TPL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $445.
What does Texas Pacific Land Corporation do?Texas Pacific Land Corporation is one of the largest landowners in Texas with approximately 882,000 surface acres...
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is one of the largest landowners in Texas with approximately 882,000 surface acres principally in the Permian Basin, earning oil and gas royalties and providing water services through TPWR. Oil royalties ($305M) represented 52% of 2025 consolidated revenues; water sales and royalties contributed 38%. Approximately 40% of 2025 revenue came from just three investment-grade customers.