Texas Pacific Land Corporation is an exceptionally high-quality royalty business with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, 60% operating margins, and a wide economic moat built on its irreplaceable Permian Basin surface acreage, but the stock has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and faces a commodity-cycle risk where forward earnings may be built on elevated energy prices that are poised to mean-revert.
Thesis pillars
- Commodity Cycle Peak Valuation Risk→Stable
- Best In Class Quality And Moat→Stable
- Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. At $407.20, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%).
Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns approximately 882,000 surface acres in Texas principally concentrated in the Permian Basin, earning royalties from oil, gas, and NGL production by third-party operators and providing water services through its TPWR subsidiary. Oil and gas... Read more
Sell if holding. At $407.20, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=5.6x,ratio=0.10x. Suitability: moderate.
About Texas Pacific Land Corporation
About Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $490.7 million from its Land and Resource Management segment and $307.5 million from Water Services and Operations in 2025 — representing 62% and 38% of total consolidated revenue, respectively. The company's royalty acreage averaged 34.6 MBoe per day of production in 2025, up from 26.8 MBoe per day in 2024, across approximately 882,000 surface acres principally concentrated in the Permian Basin. TPL is not an oil and gas producer, employing 114 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025.
TPL earns royalties on oil, gas, and NGL production from third-party operators — requiring no capital expenditure since the company does not operate wells itself. Oil royalties totaled $304.9 million in 2025 at a realized price of $64.69 per barrel, natural gas royalties $37.4 million at $1.73 per thousand cubic feet, and NGL royalties $69.3 million at $19.81 per barrel. Easements, commercial leases, and land sales added $78.2 million in the Land and Resource Management segment. The Water Services and Operations unit — operated through subsidiary Texas Pacific Water Resources LLC — generated $169.7 million from water sales and $124.2 million from produced water royalties, competing against landowners and water supply companies in the Permian Basin for operator business. Approximately 40% of 2025 revenue came from three investment-grade customers, a concentration the company attributes to the limited pool of large operators on its surface acreage. In December 2025, TPL invested $50 million in Bolt Data & Energy, Inc. to develop data center campuses on its land.
Show full overview
The oil and gas royalty stream, which represented 52% of 2025 consolidated revenue, moves directly with commodity prices set by global markets and operator drilling decisions — risks the 10-K flags as subject to OPEC+ actions, geopolitical conditions, and global economic cycles. A sustained decline from the 2025 realized oil rate of $64.69 per barrel (down from $75.80 in 2024) could also reduce operator willingness to drill new wells, weighing on royalty volumes. Additionally, the Texas Railroad Commission implemented seismic response areas in the Delaware and Midland Basins since January 2024 — including an indefinite suspension of deep injections in Culberson and Reeves counties — exposing TPWR's produced-water disposal volumes to ongoing regulatory curtailment.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Texas Pacific Land Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Texas Pacific (TPL) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Atlas Wealth Partners LLC Raises Stock Position in Texas Pacific Land Corporation $TPL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Annex Advisory Services LLC Takes Position in Texas Pacific Land Corporation $TPL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS WINTON GROUP Ltd Has $1.15 Million Stock Position in Texas Pacific Land Corporation $TPL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Time to Buy the Dip on Texas Pacific Land Stock? - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree customers40%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 40% of our 2025 revenue was derived from only three customers'
- MEDIUMGeographicPermian Basin10-K Item 1: 'principally concentrated in the Permian Basin'
- HIGHCommodityoil and gas royalties52%10-K Item 1: 'Oil and gas royalties | $| 411,677 | | | 52 | %'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-06Item 1.01LOWTPL entered a Board Representative Agreement with Horizon Kinetics on May 5, 2026, committing to nominate Horizon's designee Peter Doyle to the Board at the 2026 annual stockholder meeting, subject to nominating committee approval.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $407.20, A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $378.70. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $435.12 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $378.70. Stop-loss: $378.70.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.10× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation trades at a P/E of 55.9 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover TPL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $445.
What does Texas Pacific Land Corporation do?Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns approximately 882,000 surface acres in Texas principally concentrated in the...
Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns approximately 882,000 surface acres in Texas principally concentrated in the Permian Basin, earning royalties from oil, gas, and NGL production by third-party operators and providing water services through its TPWR subsidiary. Oil and gas royalties represented 52% of 2025 consolidated revenue ($411.7 million), with water services — water sales and produced water royalties — contributing 38%.