Texas Pacific Land Corporation is an exceptionally high-quality royalty business with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, 60% operating margins, and a wide economic moat built on its irreplaceable Permian Basin surface acreage, but the stock has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and faces a commodity-cycle risk where forward earnings may be built on elevated energy prices that are poised to mean-revert.
Thesis pillars
- Commodity Cycle Peak Valuation Risk↑Improving
- Best In Class Quality And Moat→Stable
- Earnings Miss Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Temporary headwind edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $272.13. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $287.65. Engine's entry $272.13 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.9× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%).
Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns approximately 882,000 surface acres in Texas principally concentrated in the Permian Basin, earning royalties from oil, gas, and NGL production by third-party operators and providing water services through its TPWR subsidiary. Oil and gas... Read more
Wait for pullback to $272.13. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $287.65. Engine's entry $272.13 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.9× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 19, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.12, quality 8.3/10, growth 9.2/10). Score 6.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=3.9x,ratio=0.12x. Suitability: speculative.
About Texas Pacific Land Corporation
About Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $490.7 million from its Land and Resource Management segment and $307.5 million from Water Services and Operations in 2025 — representing 62% and 38% of total consolidated revenue, respectively. The company's royalty acreage averaged 34.6 MBoe per day of production in 2025, up from 26.8 MBoe per day in 2024, across approximately 882,000 surface acres principally concentrated in the Permian Basin. TPL is not an oil and gas producer, employing 114 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025.
TPL earns royalties on oil, gas, and NGL production from third-party operators — requiring no capital expenditure since the company does not operate wells itself. Oil royalties totaled $304.9 million in 2025 at a realized price of $64.69 per barrel, natural gas royalties $37.4 million at $1.73 per thousand cubic feet, and NGL royalties $69.3 million at $19.81 per barrel. Easements, commercial leases, and land sales added $78.2 million in the Land and Resource Management segment. The Water Services and Operations unit — operated through subsidiary Texas Pacific Water Resources LLC — generated $169.7 million from water sales and $124.2 million from produced water royalties, competing against landowners and water supply companies in the Permian Basin for operator business. Approximately 40% of 2025 revenue came from three investment-grade customers, a concentration the company attributes to the limited pool of large operators on its surface acreage. In December 2025, TPL invested $50 million in Bolt Data & Energy, Inc. to develop data center campuses on its land.
Show full overview
The oil and gas royalty stream, which represented 52% of 2025 consolidated revenue, moves directly with commodity prices set by global markets and operator drilling decisions — risks the 10-K flags as subject to OPEC+ actions, geopolitical conditions, and global economic cycles. A sustained decline from the 2025 realized oil rate of $64.69 per barrel (down from $75.80 in 2024) could also reduce operator willingness to drill new wells, weighing on royalty volumes. Additionally, the Texas Railroad Commission implemented seismic response areas in the Delaware and Midland Basins since January 2024 — including an indefinite suspension of deep injections in Culberson and Reeves counties — exposing TPWR's produced-water disposal volumes to ongoing regulatory curtailment.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Texas Pacific Land Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) Shares Fall 13.4% -- What GF Score of 88 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Nov 5, 2026 negative
- NEWS TPL Is Down 15.1% in 3 Months: Is the Sell-Off an Opportunity? - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Should Investors Buy TPL as Growth Meets a Premium Valuation? - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Set to Release Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TPL Is Down 15.1% in 3 Months: Is the Sell-Off an Opportunity? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree customers40%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 40% of our 2025 revenue was derived from only three customers'
- MEDIUMGeographicPermian Basin10-K Item 1: 'principally concentrated in the Permian Basin'
- HIGHCommodityoil and gas royalties52%10-K Item 1: 'Oil and gas royalties | $| 411,677 | | | 52 | %'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-06Item 1.01LOWTPL entered a Board Representative Agreement with Horizon Kinetics on May 5, 2026, committing to nominate Horizon's designee Peter Doyle to the Board at the 2026 annual stockholder meeting, subject to nominating committee approval.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $272.13. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $287.65. Engine's entry $272.13 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.9× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 19, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.12, quality 8.3/10, growth 9.2/10). Target $376.55 (+30.9%), stop $253.08 (−13.7%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $376.55 (+30.9% upside). Target $376.55 (+30.9%), stop $253.08 (−13.7%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $253.08.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.9× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%); Negative momentum.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation trades at a P/E of 33.8 (forward 3.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
8 analysts rate TPL, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $443.
What does Texas Pacific Land Corporation do?Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns approximately 882,000 surface acres in Texas principally concentrated in the...
Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns approximately 882,000 surface acres in Texas principally concentrated in the Permian Basin, earning royalties from oil, gas, and NGL production by third-party operators and providing water services through its TPWR subsidiary. Oil and gas royalties represented 52% of 2025 consolidated revenue ($411.7 million), with water services — water sales and produced water royalties — contributing 38%.