Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. At $436.71, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%).
Texas Pacific Land holds ~882,000 surface acres principally in the Permian Basin plus ~224,000 net royalty acres of oil and gas interests. Revenue in 2025 was $798.2M total: oil/gas royalties ($411.7M, 52%), water sales ($169.7M, 21%), produced water royalties ($124.2M, 16%),... Read more
Sell if holding. At $436.71, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop 3 customers40%10-K Item 1: 'While approximately 40% of our 2025 revenue was derived from only three customers'
- HIGHGeographicPermian Basin10-K Item 1: 'approximately 882,000 surface acres of land, principally concentrated in the Permian Basin'
- HIGHCommodityoil and gas royalties52%10-K Item 1: 'Oil and gas royalties ... 52 | %'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $436.71, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $406.72. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $449.20 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $406.72. Stop-loss: $406.72.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and gas royalties (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation trades at a P/E of 62.9 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover TPL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $446.
What does Texas Pacific Land Corporation do?Texas Pacific Land holds ~882,000 surface acres principally in the Permian Basin plus ~224,000 net royalty acres of oil...
Texas Pacific Land holds ~882,000 surface acres principally in the Permian Basin plus ~224,000 net royalty acres of oil and gas interests. Revenue in 2025 was $798.2M total: oil/gas royalties ($411.7M, 52%), water sales ($169.7M, 21%), produced water royalties ($124.2M, 16%), and easements/other ($92.8M, 11%). Three investment-grade Permian Basin operators drove approximately 40% of 2025 revenue.