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TKRTimken Company (The)Hold5.5·$141.30+0.29%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Timken Company has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with average surprise of 7.65%, a golden cross breakout with RSI at 70, and a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, but with the stock trading 14.6% above the analyst target and asymmetry firmly negative, new entry here carries poor risk-reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising EstimatesDeteriorating
  • Golden Cross Breakout MomentumImproving
  • Exceptional Financial StrengthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away).

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$141.30-10.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.45%
IncomeYield1.02%(5y avg 1.69%)Payout31.82%sustainable
Stop $132.22Target $143.44(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$144.91+2.6%11 analysts
$143.44our TP
$141.30price
$144.91mean
$129
$160

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.0
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$9.8B
EV/EBITDA14.5
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth8.0%
Beta1.20
Dividend1.02%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV55%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    NOMINEES | | FOR | | WITHHOLD | | BROKER NON-VOTES | | | | | | Lucian Boldea | | 59,598,638 | | 948,854 | | 3,182,667 Maria A. Crowe | | 58,028,580 | | 2,518,912 | | 3,182,667 Elizabeth A. Harrell | | 58,197,705 | | 2,349,787 | | 3,182,667 Richard G. Kyle | [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 16, 2026, Andreas Roellgen ceased serving as Executive Vice President and President of Engineered Bearings of The Timken Company (the "Company") effective as of the close of business that day. As an employee who is domiciled in Europe, Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $132.52Resistance $146.37

Price Targets

$132
$143
A.Upside-10.8%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $143.44 (+1.5%), stop $132.22 (−6.9%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $143.44 (-10.8% upside). Target $143.44 (+1.5%), stop $132.22 (−6.9%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $132.22.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away).

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 32.0 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TKR?

17 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $145.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) · LECO (Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.)
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