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TKRTimken Company (The)Sell4.7·$112.32
SellModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising Estimates↓Deteriorating
  • Golden Cross Breakout Momentum↓Deteriorating
  • Exceptional Financial Strength→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$112.32+11.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#8 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.24%
IncomeYield1.26%(5y avg 1.61%)Payout38.21%sustainable
Stop $107.66Target $125.45(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$144.20+28.4%11 analysts
$125.45our TP
$112.32price
$144.20mean
$160

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Weak overall score: 4.7/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.9
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$7.8B
EV/EBITDA10.5
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta1.18
Dividend1.26%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.27bearish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$90-19.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On July 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of The Timken Company (the "Company") appointed Stephen P. Ribaudo to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective as of September 1, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.8
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $110.99Resistance $123.11

Price Targets

$108
$125
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $107.66. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $125.45 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $107.66. Stop-loss: $107.66.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth.

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 30.9 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKR?

17 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $144.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) · TTC (Toro Company (The)) · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.)
Home › Stocks › TKR

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