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Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $110.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away).

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$110.50-1.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#8 of 8 Tools & Accessories
Stop $104.60Target $108.79(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$113.64+2.8%11 analysts
$108.79our TP
$110.50price
$113.64mean
$100
$130

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $110.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.7% away)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.9
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth3.5%
Beta1.19
Dividend1.31%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$55-50.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 16, 2026, Andreas Roellgen ceased serving as Executive Vice President and President of Engineered Bearings of The Timken Company (the "Company") effective as of the close of business that day. As an employee who is domiciled in Europe, Mr.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    THE TIMKEN COMPANY | By: | /s/ Hansal N. Patel | Hansal N. Patel | Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary Date: February 13, 2026
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.4

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
1.5
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $97.34Resistance $111.01

Price Targets

$105
$109
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $110.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $104.60. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $108.79 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $104.60. Stop-loss: $104.60.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.7% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 25.9 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKR?

16 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

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