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Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$112.73+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#4 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.32%
IncomeYield1.28%(5y avg 1.69%)Payout31.82%sustainable
Stop $104.50Target $112.94(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$129.82+15.2%11 analysts
$112.94our TP
$112.73price
$129.82mean
$158

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Timken Company (The)

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 8, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: NOMINEES | | FOR | | WITHHOLD | | BROKER NON-VOTES | | | | | | Lucian Boldea | | 59,598,638 | | 948,854 | | 3,182,667 Maria A. Crowe | | 58,028,580 | | 2,518,912 | | 3,182,667 Elizabeth A. Harrell | | 58,197,705 | | 2,349,787 | | 3,182,667 Richard G. Kyle | [... truncated]
  • Apr 21, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: On April 16, 2026, Andreas Roellgen ceased serving as Executive Vice President and President of Engineered Bearings of The Timken Company (the "Company") effective as of the close of business that day. As an employee who is domiciled in Europe, Mr.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.6
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$7.8B
EV/EBITDA12.1
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth8.0%
Beta1.18
Dividend1.28%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$90-20.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    NOMINEES | | FOR | | WITHHOLD | | BROKER NON-VOTES | | | | | | Lucian Boldea | | 59,598,638 | | 948,854 | | 3,182,667 Maria A. Crowe | | 58,028,580 | | 2,518,912 | | 3,182,667 Elizabeth A. Harrell | | 58,197,705 | | 2,349,787 | | 3,182,667 Richard G. Kyle | [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 16, 2026, Andreas Roellgen ceased serving as Executive Vice President and President of Engineered Bearings of The Timken Company (the "Company") effective as of the close of business that day. As an employee who is domiciled in Europe, Mr.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    THE TIMKEN COMPANY | By: | /s/ Hansal N. Patel | Hansal N. Patel | Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary Date: February 13, 2026
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $105.15Resistance $123.28

Price Targets

$105
$113
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $112.94 (+0.2%), stop $104.50 (−7.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $112.94 (+0.5% upside). Target $112.94 (+0.2%), stop $104.50 (−7.9%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $104.50.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 25.6 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TKR?

16 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $130.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

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