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TKRTimken Company (The)Sell5.3·$115.66
SellModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising Estimates↓Deteriorating
  • Golden Cross Breakout Momentum↑Improving
  • Exceptional Financial Strength→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

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Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

SellQualityShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $115.66, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$115.66+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#7 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.09%
IncomeYield1.24%(5y avg 1.61%)Payout38.21%sustainable
Stop $108.46Analyst target $125.45(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst consensus$144.20+24.7%11 analysts with price targets
$125.45Analyst target
$115.66price
$144.20mean
$160

Sell if holding. At $115.66, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Timken Company (The)

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:59:37Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.5%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.3
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$8.0B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta1.18
Dividend1.24%
Analysts with ratings17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.0
Support Resistance
2.4
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.8
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $106.25Resistance $118.67

Price Targets

$108
$125
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings today - binary event risk
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $115.66, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $108.46. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Analyst target: $125.45 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $108.46. Stop-loss: $108.46.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth.

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 31.3 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKR?

17 analysts rate TKR, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 11 analysts publish price targets averaging $144.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) · TTC (Toro Company (The)) · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.)
Home › Stocks › TKR

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