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TKRTimken Company (The)Hold5.0·$123.16+1.71%
HoldModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising EstimatesDeteriorating
  • Golden Cross Breakout MomentumImproving
  • Exceptional Financial StrengthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

HoldQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $123.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$123.16+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#8 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.09%
IncomeYield1.19%(5y avg 1.69%)Payout38.21%sustainable
Stop $116.26Target $128.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$147.75+20.0%11 analysts
$128.54our TP
$123.16price
$147.75mean
$160

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $123.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.4%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.8
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$8.5B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta1.21
Dividend1.19%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.52bearish
IV49%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On July 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of The Timken Company (the "Company") appointed Stephen P. Ribaudo to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective as of September 1, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.8
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $118.16Resistance $134.60

Price Targets

$116
$129
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $123.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $128.54 (+4.4%), stop $116.26 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $128.54 (+4.4% upside). Target $128.54 (+4.4%), stop $116.26 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $116.26.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth.

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TKR?

17 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $148.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · TTC (Toro Company (The)) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) · LECO (Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.)
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