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Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit.

Stanley Black & Decker is a global provider of hand tools, power tools, outdoor equipment, and engineered fastening solutions with $15.1B in 2025 revenues; Tools & Outdoor (DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, BLACK+DECKER) represents 87% and Engineered Fastening 13%. Approximately 62% of... Read more

$78.01+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#5 of 8 Tools & Accessories
Stop $72.67Target $79.65(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$89.58+14.8%14 analysts
$79.65our TP
$78.01price
$89.58mean
$65
$120

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.1
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$11.8B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn2.7%
ROE4.5%
Rev Growth-1.0%
Beta1.20
Dividend4.37%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$45-42.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerThe Home Depot15%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Home Depot accounted for approximately 15% and 14% of the Company's consolidated net sales in 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomerLowe's12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Lowe's accounted for approximately 12% and 14% of the Company's consolidated net sales in 2025 and 2024, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02LOW
    Andrea Ayers announced retirement from Board (not standing for re-election at 2026 AGM). Shane O'Kelly elected as director effective Jan 23, 2026. No disagreement cited for Ayers departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.6

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.9
Support Resistance
2.0
52w Position
6.9
GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.76Resistance $81.28

Price Targets

$73
$80
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SWK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $72.67. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SWK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.65 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $72.67. Stop-loss: $72.67.

What are the risks of investing in SWK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SWK overvalued or undervalued?

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SWK?

24 analysts cover SWK with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $90.

What does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. do?Stanley Black & Decker is a global provider of hand tools, power tools, outdoor equipment, and engineered fastening...

Stanley Black & Decker is a global provider of hand tools, power tools, outdoor equipment, and engineered fastening solutions with $15.1B in 2025 revenues; Tools & Outdoor (DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, BLACK+DECKER) represents 87% and Engineered Fastening 13%. Approximately 62% of revenues come from the U.S. The Home Depot accounts for 15% and Lowe's 12% of consolidated net sales.

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