Hillman Solutions offers a compelling valuation at roughly 11x forward earnings with 32% upside to the analyst target and a roughly 4.6-to-1 risk/reward in the investor's favor, but the absence of a competitive moat, below-average quality metrics, and a confirmed downtrend despite an overbought near-term rally argue for patience over immediate deployment.
Thesis pillars
- No Moat Below Average Quality→Stable
- Deep Value Large Upside To Target↓Deteriorating
- Recovery Momentum Vs Downtrend Conflict↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026· older than 90 days
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $8.35: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $8.35: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 104d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Hillman Solutions Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Hillman Solutions Lowers FY2026 Sales Guidance from $1.670B-$1.720B to $1.660B-$1.680B vs $1.683B Est — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 negative
- NEWS Slower Core Growth Challenges Hillman Solutions’ (HLMN) Risk-Reward Profile - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Stock Breaks Above 50 Day Moving Average - What's Next? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS StoneX reiterates Hillman Solutions stock rating on pro channel strength By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS I Would Be Crazy To Downgrade Hillman Solutions Here (NASDAQ:HLMN) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 28, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:39:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop two customers43%10-K Item 1: 'the top two of which accounted for approximately $674.3 million, or approximately 43% of our total revenues in 2025'
- LOWCustomerHome Depot23%10-K Item 1: 'Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues'
- LOWCustomerLowe's21%10-K Item 1: 'Lowe’s was the second largest customer at approximately $324.4 million or 20.9% of our total revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina sourcing33%10-K Item 1A: 'We estimate we source approximately 33% of our products from China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $8.35: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $7.77. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $10.22 (+22.4% upside). Prior stop was $7.77. Stop-loss: $7.77.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Overbought (RSI 83).
Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 41.8 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate HLMN, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $12.
What does Hillman Solutions Corp. do?Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE —...
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025. Home Depot and Lowe's together represent 43% of revenue; proprietary robotic key duplication kiosks (MinuteKey, KeyKrafter) deployed at retailer locations provide a recurring equipment-and-consumables revenue stream.