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Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Hillman Solutions is a North American hardware products distributor serving retail channels including Home Depot, Lowe's, and mass merchants, with $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025 across three segments: Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and... Read more

$7.18+46.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.74%
Stop $6.93Target $10.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.7:1
Analyst target$12.13+68.9%8 analysts
$10.55our TP
$7.18price
$12.13mean
$14

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Hillman Solutions Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 47%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.9
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE3.0%
Rev Growth3.0%
Beta1.48
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.8
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
2.3
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
4.4
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 5.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
22 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.14Resistance $9.12

Price Targets

$7
$11
A.Upside+46.9%
A.R:R5.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLMN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $6.93. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLMN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.55 (+46.9% upside). Prior stop was $6.93. Stop-loss: $6.93.

What are the risks of investing in HLMN?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is HLMN overvalued or undervalued?

Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 39.9 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HLMN?

14 analysts cover HLMN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Hillman Solutions Corp. do?Hillman Solutions is a North American hardware products distributor serving retail channels including Home Depot,...

Hillman Solutions is a North American hardware products distributor serving retail channels including Home Depot, Lowe's, and mass merchants, with $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025 across three segments: Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada. Revenue is generated through product sales (fasteners, keys, engraving, PPE) and in-store merchandising services. Home Depot was the single largest customer at 22.5% of total revenues and Lowe's at 20.9%.

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