Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (43.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China and Taiwan.
Hillman Solutions provides hardware products (fasteners, keys, PPE) and robotics kiosks to retail chains in N. America, with ~$1.55B in net sales in 2025. Revenue comes from national accounts including Home Depot (22.5%) and Lowe's (20.9%), together accounting for 43% of total... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (43.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China and Taiwan. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerHome Depot and Lowe's43%10-K Item 1: 'Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues and Lowe's was the second largest customer at approximately $324.4 million or 20.9%'
- HIGHSupplierChina and Taiwan10-K Item 1A: 'We import a majority of our products and rely on foreign sources, primarily China and Taiwan, to meet our supply demands at prices that support our current operating margins.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (43.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China and Taiwan. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $10.55 (+29.6%), stop $7.58 (−7.4%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.55 (+30.1% upside). Target $10.55 (+29.6%), stop $7.58 (−7.4%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Stop-loss: $7.58.
Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (43.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: China and Taiwan; Negative momentum.
Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 45.5 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts cover HLMN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Hillman Solutions Corp. do?Hillman Solutions provides hardware products (fasteners, keys, PPE) and robotics kiosks to retail chains in N. America,...
Hillman Solutions provides hardware products (fasteners, keys, PPE) and robotics kiosks to retail chains in N. America, with ~$1.55B in net sales in 2025. Revenue comes from national accounts including Home Depot (22.5%) and Lowe's (20.9%), together accounting for 43% of total revenues.