Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Hillman Solutions is a North American hardware products distributor serving retail channels including Home Depot, Lowe's, and mass merchants, with $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025 across three segments: Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Hillman Solutions Corp.
Latest news
- Hillman Solutions Corp. ($HLMN) CEO 2025 Pay Revealed - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- HLMN Hillman Solutions posts Q4 2025 earnings above estimates, with stock climbing on solid year-over-year revenue growt — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La positive
- Earnings Preview: HLMN to Report Financial Results Post-market on April 27 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.01 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- Analysts Offer Insights on Industrial Goods Companies: Equifax (EFX), Hillman Solutions (HLMN) and Northrop Grumman (NOC — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $6.93. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.55 (+46.9% upside). Prior stop was $6.93. Stop-loss: $6.93.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 39.9 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover HLMN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Hillman Solutions Corp. do?Hillman Solutions is a North American hardware products distributor serving retail channels including Home Depot,...
Hillman Solutions is a North American hardware products distributor serving retail channels including Home Depot, Lowe's, and mass merchants, with $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025 across three segments: Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada. Revenue is generated through product sales (fasteners, keys, engraving, PPE) and in-store merchandising services. Home Depot was the single largest customer at 22.5% of total revenues and Lowe's at 20.9%.