Supernus Pharmaceuticals is growing revenue at 39% year-over-year and passes the Rule of 40 at a score of 56, but 76% of revenues are concentrated in three drug distributors and the stock is in an oversold technical condition with momentum at 3.2 out of 10 and 11% short interest.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Rule Of 40→Stable
- Distributor Concentration Risk→Stable
- Oversold Technicals High Short Interest→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Sell if holding. At $48.05, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%).
Supernus Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes CNS treatments, with nine FDA-approved products spanning ADHD, Parkinson's disease, postpartum depression, and epilepsy sold primarily in the U.S. Three wholesale distributors—Cencora, Cardinal Health, and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $48.05, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Nine FDA-approved CNS therapies underpin Supernus Pharmaceuticals' revenue base, with Qelbree (ADHD) representing approximately 49% of 2025 total net revenues and GOCOVRI (Parkinson's dyskinesia and OFF episodes) contributing 23%. The company expanded its portfolio through the July 2025 acquisition of Sage Therapeutics for roughly $561 million cash plus contingent value rights tied to ZURZUVAE net sales milestones through 2030. ONAPGO, a subcutaneous apomorphine infusion device for Parkinson's motor fluctuations, received FDA approval in February 2025 and launched in April 2025.
Supernus sells products through pharmaceutical wholesalers and specialty pharmacies in the U.S., with Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson each individually exceeding 15% of total product revenue and together surpassing 76% in 2025. Qelbree is promoted by two dedicated sales forces targeting ADHD specialists, psychiatrists, and primary care physicians; Parkinson's products including GOCOVRI, APOKYN, ONAPGO, and XADAGO are sold by a movement-disorder-focused sales force. ZURZUVAE is co-commercialized with Biogen under a profit-sharing arrangement in the U.S., with Biogen recording product sales and each party sharing operating profits and losses equally. Generic versions of Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR entered the market in 2023 and 2024 respectively, while settlement agreements permit generic XADAGO entry from December 2027 and generic GOCOVRI from June 2029.
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GOCOVRI, which contributed 23% of 2025 net revenues, faces permitted generic entry under settlement beginning June 2029, while XADAGO faces entry from December 2027. The Sage acquisition adds a structured commercial milestone: the CVR agreement requires ZURZUVAE net sales of $250 million in any calendar year through 2027 to unlock the first $1.00-per-share payment, with escalating thresholds through 2030. A supply constraint on ONAPGO disclosed in November 2025 required pausing new patient initiation, with the company reporting progress on securing additional supply in February 2026 and a second supplier expected to begin supplying ONAPGO in 2027.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS A Look At Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Valuation After Strong Q1 Beat And Reaffirmed Guidance - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Beats Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Stock Rises on Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS ($SUPN) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Supernus Pharmaceuticals’s (NASDAQ:SUPN) Q1 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates - StockStory — StockStory positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerCencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson76%10-K Item 1A: 'Cencora, Inc., Cardinal Health, Inc., and McKesson Corporation...collectively accounted for more than 76% of our total product revenue in 2025'
- MEDIUMProductQelbree49%10-K Item 1A: 'Qelbree®...represented approximately 49%...of our total net revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWProductGOCOVRI23%10-K Item 1A: 'GOCOVRI®...represented approximately...23%...of our total net revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $48.05, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.31. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $54.66 (+13.8% upside). Prior stop was $45.31. Stop-loss: $45.31.
Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover SUPN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $63.
What does Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Supernus Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes CNS treatments, with nine FDA-approved products spanning ADHD,...
Supernus Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes CNS treatments, with nine FDA-approved products spanning ADHD, Parkinson's disease, postpartum depression, and epilepsy sold primarily in the U.S. Three wholesale distributors—Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson—collectively exceeded 76% of total product revenue in 2025.