Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the SUPN stock price target?

Take-profit $54.52 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $46.19.

Q: Is SUPN overvalued or undervalued?

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about SUPN?

12 analysts cover SUPN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $63.

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a CNS-focused biopharmaceutical company commercializing treatments for ADHD, Parkinson's disease, postpartum depression, epilepsy, and related disorders in the US. In July 2025, it acquired Sage Therapeutics and its ZURZUVAE (zuranolone) PPD... Read more

$48.25+12.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#16 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Stop $46.19Target $54.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1

Analyst target$62.67+29.9%6 analysts

$54.52our TP

$48.25price

$62.67mean

$66

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Strong growth profile

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%)

Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%)

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)11.5

Mkt Cap$2.8B

EV/EBITDA21.5

Profit Mgn-5.4%

ROE-3.7%

Rev Growth21.5%

Beta0.73

DividendNone

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish

IV69%elevated

Max Pain$40-17.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomerCencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson76%
10-K Item 1A: 'Each of our three major customers, Cencora, Inc., Cardinal Health, Inc., and McKesson Corporation, individually accounted for more than 15% of our total product revenue in 2025 and collectively accounted for more than 76% of our total product revenue in 2025.'
HIGHProductQelbree49%
10-K Item 1A: 'Our major products Qelbree®, GOCOVRI®, Oxtellar XR®, APOKYN®, and ZURZUVAE® represented approximately 49%, 23%, 6%, and 8% of our total net revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-24Item 5.02LOW
Compensation Committee approved modifications to executive officer compensation including salary increases and equity grants for CEO Jack A. Khattar and CFO Timothy C. Dec. No departure. Routine annual review.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.615%0.99

Quality4.515%0.67

Growth7.915%1.19

Momentum2.610%0.26

Sentiment7.210%0.72

Insider Activity3.410%0.34

Peer Rank3.210%0.32

Technical Setup8.15%0.41

Risk Profile4.35%0.21

Catalyst6.75%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)5.45

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Macd

0.3

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

7.7

Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

1.4

Value Rank

2.5

Growth Rank

7.4

GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

38 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.62Resistance $52.37

Price Targets

$46

$55

A.Upside+13.0%

A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SUPN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.19. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the SUPN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.52 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $46.19. Stop-loss: $46.19.

What are the risks of investing in SUPN?

Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, and McKesson (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5.

Is SUPN overvalued or undervalued?

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SUPN?

12 analysts cover SUPN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $63.

What does Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a CNS-focused biopharmaceutical company commercializing treatments for ADHD, Parkinson's...