Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, McKesson (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%).
Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage CNS biopharmaceutical company with approved products for ADHD (Qelbree, ~49% of 2025 net revenues), Parkinson’s disease (GOCOVRI, ~23%), postpartum depression (ZURZUVAE, ~8%), epilepsy, and other conditions. Products are sold... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, McKesson (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- A Look At Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Valuation After Strong Q1 Beat And Reaffirmed Guidance - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Beats Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Stock Rises on Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS ($SUPN) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- Supernus Pharmaceuticals’s (NASDAQ:SUPN) Q1 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates - StockStory — StockStory positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerCencora, Cardinal Health, McKesson76%10-K Item 1: 'Each of our three major customers, Cencora, Inc., Cardinal Health, Inc., and McKesson Corporation, individually accounted for more than 15% of our total product revenue in 2025 and collectively accounted for more than 76%'
- HIGHProductQelbree49%10-K Item 1: 'Our major products Qelbree®, GOCOVRI®, Oxtellar XR®, APOKYN®, and ZURZUVAE® represented approximately 49%, 23%, 6%, and 8% of our total net revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-24Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved modifications to executive officer compensation on February 18, 2026, including salary increases, 2025 bonuses, and equity grants for CEO Jack Khattar and other officers. Routine annual compensation cycle.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, McKesson (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $45.46. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $54.66 (+14.8% upside). Prior stop was $45.46. Stop-loss: $45.46.
Concentration risk — Customer: Cencora, Cardinal Health, McKesson (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Qelbree (49.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover SUPN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $63.
What does Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage CNS biopharmaceutical company with approved products for ADHD (Qelbree,...
Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage CNS biopharmaceutical company with approved products for ADHD (Qelbree, ~49% of 2025 net revenues), Parkinson’s disease (GOCOVRI, ~23%), postpartum depression (ZURZUVAE, ~8%), epilepsy, and other conditions. Products are sold through pharmaceutical wholesalers, with the top three distributors collectively accounting for over 76% of product revenue.