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SUSuncor Energy Inc.Buy Wait7.0·$67.36-1.30%
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Suncor Energy has a wide economic moat, a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and a forward P/E of 11.2x with a PEG of 0.38, offering an attractively priced integrated energy position, though momentum is weak and the stock has already exceeded analyst price targets.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Integrated Energy QualityStable
  • Dividend Yield Sustainability RiskImproving
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Wait for pullback to $54.29. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $67.36. Engine's entry $54.29 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away).

Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; and Refining and Marketing segments. The Oil Sands segment produces bitumen; and markets, supplies,... Read more

$67.36-10.5% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#3 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield11.45%
IncomeYield2.50%(5y avg 3.88%)Payout31.64%sustainable
Entry $54.29(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $51.18Target $77.52(default +15%)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$70.98+5.4%3 analysts
$77.52our TP
$67.36price
$70.98mean
$78

Wait for pullback to $54.29. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $67.36. Engine's entry $54.29 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$80.6B
EV/EBITDA4.6
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE19.3%
Rev Growth45.9%
Beta0.57
Dividend2.50%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.49bullish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$75+11.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Conservative
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.50Resistance $68.68

Price Targets

$51
$54
$78
A.Upside-10.5%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.7%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.5% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SU stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $54.29. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $67.36. Engine's entry $54.29 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Target $77.52 (+15.1%), stop $51.18 (−31.6%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

What is the SU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $77.52 (-10.5% upside). Target $77.52 (+15.1%), stop $51.18 (−31.6%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $51.18.

What are the risks of investing in SU?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away).

Is SU overvalued or undervalued?

Suncor Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SU?

29 analysts cover SU with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $71.

What does Suncor Energy Inc. do?Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The...

Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; and Refining and Marketing segments. The Oil Sands segment produces bitumen; and markets, supplies, and transports and manages crude oil, power, and byproducts. The Exploration and Production segment is involved in the offshore operations on the east coast of Canada, and onshore assets in Libya and Syria; and marketing and risk management of crude oil. The Refining and Marketing segment refines and supplies crude oil and intermediate feedstock into a range of petroleum and petrochemical products, as well as sells refined petroleum products to retail customers. This segment is also involved in the trading of crude oil and refined products, natural gas, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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