Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
- ▸Attractively valued
SU · Why this verdict
Why Suncor Energy (SU) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Suncor is assessed as having a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a strong returns-plus-growth profile, indicating durable competitive advantages in integrated oil sands production that sustain profitability across commodity cycles. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 15% and free cash flow remains positive over the next 12 months, reflecting the moat's ability to generate cash even in a softer energy pricing environment. | →Stable |
| CounterOil sands production has very high break-even costs and limited flexibility to curtail production; the moat may be illusory if oil prices fall substantially below the cost of production. | ||
The data flags a yield trap warning, indicating the dividend yield may look attractive but is not supported at the current distribution level relative to sustainable cash flows, which is a concern given that earnings in 1 of the last 4 quarters came in below estimates. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage ratio improves to above 1.5x earnings over the next 12 months, demonstrating the payout is sustainable from operating cash flow. | →Stable |
| CounterAs an integrated producer with wide moat characteristics, Suncor has historically maintained dividends through commodity downturns by using balance sheet flexibility; the yield trap flag may be overly conservative. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.38 indicate the market is pricing Suncor at a meaningful discount to earnings growth, with a value score of 8.1 out of 10 and the analyst consensus describing the stock as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands above 13x within 12 months as the market recognizes the discount to the energy sector's growth profile. | →Stable |
| CounterEnergy companies have historically traded at discounted multiples to the broader market because commodity exposure creates earnings volatility; the low PEG may persist rather than compress. | ||
The momentum score is 4.0 out of 10, falling on-balance volume indicates distribution, and the stock already trades 9.3% above analyst targets, meaning even if the fundamental case is intact, the technical setup and price positioning do not favor near-term entry. Momentum breakdown | The stock price retreats to between $55 and $57, at least 4% below the current $59.65, before recovering, establishing a better technical entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is above the 200-day moving average, which is an uptrend signal; the RSI of 34 suggests the stock is in an oversold pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a distribution phase. | ||
Suncor is assessed as having a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a strong returns-plus-growth profile, indicating durable competitive advantages in integrated oil sands production that sustain profitability across commodity cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 15% and free cash flow remains positive over the next 12 months, reflecting the moat's ability to generate cash even in a softer energy pricing environment.
CounterOil sands production has very high break-even costs and limited flexibility to curtail production; the moat may be illusory if oil prices fall substantially below the cost of production.
The data flags a yield trap warning, indicating the dividend yield may look attractive but is not supported at the current distribution level relative to sustainable cash flows, which is a concern given that earnings in 1 of the last 4 quarters came in below estimates.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage ratio improves to above 1.5x earnings over the next 12 months, demonstrating the payout is sustainable from operating cash flow.
CounterAs an integrated producer with wide moat characteristics, Suncor has historically maintained dividends through commodity downturns by using balance sheet flexibility; the yield trap flag may be overly conservative.
A forward P/E of 11.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.38 indicate the market is pricing Suncor at a meaningful discount to earnings growth, with a value score of 8.1 out of 10 and the analyst consensus describing the stock as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands above 13x within 12 months as the market recognizes the discount to the energy sector's growth profile.
CounterEnergy companies have historically traded at discounted multiples to the broader market because commodity exposure creates earnings volatility; the low PEG may persist rather than compress.
The momentum score is 4.0 out of 10, falling on-balance volume indicates distribution, and the stock already trades 9.3% above analyst targets, meaning even if the fundamental case is intact, the technical setup and price positioning do not favor near-term entry.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price retreats to between $55 and $57, at least 4% below the current $59.65, before recovering, establishing a better technical entry point.
CounterThe stock is above the 200-day moving average, which is an uptrend signal; the RSI of 34 suggests the stock is in an oversold pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a distribution phase.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Suncor Energy has a wide economic moat, a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and a forward P/E of 11.2x with a PEG of 0.38, offering an attractively priced integrated energy position, though momentum is weak and the stock has already exceeded analyst price targets.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.3 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 8.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.5 |
| MACD | 0.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 22)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 6.6 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.55
Upside
-3.1%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Growth at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Integrated Energy Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 10%, declining more than 5 percentage points from the current level as oil prices drop significantly.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 8x as earnings estimates decline by more than 25% from current consensus levels.
- P3Momentum Weakness Below Targets
Trip ifPrice drops below $52, more than 12% below the current $59.65, confirming a breakdown through key technical support.
- P4Dividend Yield Sustainability Risk
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 25%, reducing the quarterly payment below 75% of its current level.