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SRSpire Inc.Sell5.8·$79.68+2.15%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Spire Inc. is a regulated gas utility with attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 14.2 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.46, with analysts seeing roughly 25% upside to consensus targets, but its free cash flow is deeply negative at -258% of net income and high leverage of 2.3 times debt-to-equity limits the margin of safety.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Value Analyst UpsideStable
  • High Leverage Negative Fcf RiskStable
  • Regulated Utility Earnings StabilityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Spire Inc. (SR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. At $79.68, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.8%.

Spire Inc. holds regulated natural gas distribution utilities in Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi serving 1.74 million customers, plus natural gas marketing and midstream segments. Spire Missouri—the largest gas distribution utility in Missouri—and Spire Alabama serve... Read more

$79.68+4.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-19.65%
IncomeYield4.14%(5y avg 4.16%)Payout65.18%
Stop $76.14Target $83.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$96.00+20.5%10 analysts
$83.52our TP
$79.68price
$96.00mean
$105

Sell if holding. At $79.68, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.8%. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Spire Inc.

About Spire Inc.

Spire Inc.'s regulated Gas Utility segment served 1,744,537 customers across Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi in fiscal 2025, with Spire Missouri alone accounting for 1,213,375 customers as the largest natural gas distribution utility in the state. Spire Alabama serves more than 400,000 customers in central and northern Alabama under the Alabama Public Service Commission. Spire employed 3,497 people and operates three reportable business segments: Gas Utility, Gas Marketing, and Midstream.

Spire earns Gas Utility revenue through cost-of-service rates approved by state commissions—the MoPSC in Missouri, the APSC in Alabama, and the MSPSC in Mississippi—with residential customers comprising 66% of Gas Utility operating revenues in fiscal 2025 and commercial and industrial customers contributing 23%. Spire Missouri's Infrastructure System Replacement Surcharge allows expedited recovery of infrastructure investment without formal rate cases, subject to prudence review; the underlying statute is scheduled to expire on August 28, 2029 absent legislative action. Spire Missouri purchased from 39 different natural gas suppliers in fiscal 2025, routing supply through Enable Mississippi River Transmission, Southern Star Central Gas Pipeline, Panhandle Eastern Pipe Line, and the Spire STL Pipeline. The Gas Marketing segment averaged 1.22 Bcf per day in fiscal 2025 and provides wholesale natural gas marketing throughout the central and southern United States, with wholesale activities representing a majority of total Gas Marketing business. The Midstream segment includes the Spire STL Pipeline, Spire MoGas Pipeline, and storage operations in the West and Salt Plains facilities.

Show full overview

Missouri represents the dominant regulatory and operational concentration for Spire: Spire Missouri served 1,213,375 of the company's 1,744,537 Gas Utility customers in fiscal 2025 under tariffs set by the MoPSC. The Infrastructure System Replacement Surcharge recovery mechanism is tied to a statute scheduled to expire on August 28, 2029 absent legislative renewal, creating a defined regulatory dependency for Missouri infrastructure investment. Rate increases across all three utility subsidiaries are subject to commission approval with no assurance of full cost recovery, and the continuation of Spire Alabama's Rate Stabilization and Equalization mechanism beyond September 30, 2025 is subject to ongoing APSC discretion.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

From Spire Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.1
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.55
Dividend4.14%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicMissouri
    10-K Item 1: 'Spire Missouri is the largest natural gas distribution utility system in Missouri, serving approximately 1.2 million residential, commercial and industrial customers'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryMoPSC
    10-K Item 1A: 'the Utilities are regulated in Missouri by the MoPSC'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $75.85Resistance $82.48

Price Targets

$76
$84
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $79.68, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.8%. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $76.14. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.52 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $76.14. Stop-loss: $76.14.

What are the risks of investing in SR?

Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Negative free cash flow.

Is SR overvalued or undervalued?

Spire Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SR?

18 analysts cover SR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $96.

What does Spire Inc. do?Spire Inc. holds regulated natural gas distribution utilities in Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi serving 1.74...

Spire Inc. holds regulated natural gas distribution utilities in Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi serving 1.74 million customers, plus natural gas marketing and midstream segments. Spire Missouri—the largest gas distribution utility in Missouri—and Spire Alabama serve approximately 1.2 million and 0.4 million customers respectively, earning regulated distribution revenue with residential customers comprising 66% of Gas Utility operating revenues in fiscal 2025. The company manages over 60,000 miles of mains and employs 3,497 people.

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