Skip to main content
ATOAtmos Energy CorporationHold5.1·$167.89-1.38%
Open full analysis

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $167.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) and Texas state commissions (75.0%).

Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distribution utility serving ~3.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across eight states (primarily in the South), plus one of the largest intrastate pipelines in Texas (APT). Revenue comes from regulated gas distribution... Read more

$167.89+6.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-7.78%
IncomeYield2.35%(5y avg 2.40%)Payout46.06%sustainable
Stop $161.65Target $178.75(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$187.27+11.5%11 analysts
$178.75our TP
$167.89price
$187.27mean
$206

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $167.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) and Texas state commissions (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%)
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) and Texas state commissions (75.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.0
P/E (Fwd)19.0
Mkt Cap$28.4B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn27.6%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth0.6%
Beta0.60
Dividend2.35%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 75 percent of our consolidated operations are located in the State of Texas.'
  • HIGHregulatoryTexas Railroad Commission (RRC) and Texas state commissions75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 75 percent of our consolidated operations are located in the State of Texas.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
4.9
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $166.33Resistance $182.40

Price Targets

$162
$179
A.Upside+6.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.0% upside)
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $167.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) and Texas state commissions (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $178.75 (+6.5%), stop $161.65 (−3.9%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $178.75 (+6.5% upside). Target $178.75 (+6.5%), stop $161.65 (−3.9%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $161.65.

What are the risks of investing in ATO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) and Texas state commissions (75.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?

Atmos Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.0 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ATO?

18 analysts cover ATO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $187.

What does Atmos Energy Corporation do?Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distribution utility serving ~3.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial...

Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distribution utility serving ~3.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across eight states (primarily in the South), plus one of the largest intrastate pipelines in Texas (APT). Revenue comes from regulated gas distribution rates and pipeline/storage fees; formula rate mechanisms allow recovery of ~95% of capital expenditures within six months.

Related stocks: SR (Spire Inc.) · UGI (UGI Corporation) · NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) · CTRI (Centuri Holdings, Inc.) · BIPC (Brookfield Infrastructure Corpo)
Home Stocks ATO

Latest news

Latest News

MSN41d ago
Investing.com South Africa55d agoAnalyst
MSN56d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance27d ago
GuruFocus62d agoAnalyst
MSN63d agoAnalyst
Simplywall.st63d agoLegal
MSN63d agoAnalyst
Investing.com UK34d ago
Quiver Quantitative34d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com34d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com34d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com34d agoEarnings
Simplywall.st28d ago
MSN35d agoEarnings
Meyka36d ago
GuruFocus40d ago
Insider Monkey40d agoAnalyst
AD HOC NEWS41d ago
Seeking Alpha26d agoEarnings
Loading more...