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SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.Sell5.7·$215.52-1.61%
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Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $215.52 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away).

Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70 Premium Outlets, 16 Mills, and others) across 38 states, plus 42 international properties and a 22.2% stake in Klépierre. Revenue derives primarily from retail... Read more

$215.52+0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#11 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.00%
IncomeYield4.02%(5y avg 5.11%)Payout60.15%
Stop $207.75Target $216.03(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$214.55-0.5%20 analysts
$216.03our TP
$215.52price
$214.55mean
$194
$250

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $215.52 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.1% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)32.7
Mkt Cap$83.2B
EV/EBITDA20.5
Profit Mgn70.6%
ROE113.6%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta1.35
Dividend4.02%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV59%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02HIGH
    David Simon, Chairman/CEO/President, died March 23, 2026. Eli Simon (age 38, COO, Board member) appointed CEO and President effective March 23, 2026. No change to Eli Simon's compensation announced.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
    Martin J. Cicco appointed to Board effective Feb 5, 2026; Board size increased from 13 to 14 members. Independent director. Committee assignments not yet determined. No arrangements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
1.7
Analyst Target
3.0
P Ocf
5.5
P/OCF: 20.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)Expensive valuation

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $196.48Resistance $220.44

Price Targets

$208
$216
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $215.52 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $207.75. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $216.03 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $207.75. Stop-loss: $207.75.

What are the risks of investing in SPG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.6): -1.5.

Is SPG overvalued or undervalued?

Simon Property Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 32.7). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPG?

26 analysts cover SPG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $215.

What does Simon Property Group, Inc. do?Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70...

Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70 Premium Outlets, 16 Mills, and others) across 38 states, plus 42 international properties and a 22.2% stake in Klépierre. Revenue derives primarily from retail tenant rents and overage rents based on reported tenant sales. The company had no single customer exceeding 10% of revenues.

Related stocks: FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) · BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) · ADC (Agree Realty Corporation) · REG (Regency Centers Corporation) · O (Realty Income Corporation)
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