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Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.86 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away).

Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70 Premium Outlets, 16 Mills, and others) across 38 states, plus 42 international properties and a 22.2% stake in Klépierre. Revenue derives primarily from retail... Read more

$200.86+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#7 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.28%
IncomeYield4.39%(5y avg 5.11%)Payout60.15%
Stop $193.76Target $202.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$213.30+6.2%20 analysts
$202.33our TP
$200.86price
$213.30mean
$194
$250

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.86 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(8), earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Simon Property Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.6% away)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.9
P/E (Fwd)29.1
Mkt Cap$76.2B
EV/EBITDA19.3
Profit Mgn70.6%
ROE113.6%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta1.36
Dividend4.39%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV33%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02HIGH
    David Simon, Chairman/CEO/President, died March 23, 2026. Eli Simon (age 38, COO, Board member) appointed CEO and President effective March 23, 2026. No change to Eli Simon's compensation announced.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
    Martin J. Cicco appointed to Board effective Feb 5, 2026; Board size increased from 13 to 14 members. Independent director. Committee assignments not yet determined. No arrangements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.4
Ps
2.4
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
6.0
P/OCF: 18.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(8)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $198.41Resistance $206.46

Price Targets

$194
$202
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.86 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $193.76. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the SPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $202.33 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $193.76. Stop-loss: $193.76.

What are the risks of investing in SPG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is SPG overvalued or undervalued?

Simon Property Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.9 (forward 29.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPG?

26 analysts cover SPG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $213.

What does Simon Property Group, Inc. do?Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70...

Simon Property Group is a self-administered REIT owning 212 income-producing U.S. retail properties (108 malls, 70 Premium Outlets, 16 Mills, and others) across 38 states, plus 42 international properties and a 22.2% stake in Klépierre. Revenue derives primarily from retail tenant rents and overage rents based on reported tenant sales. The company had no single customer exceeding 10% of revenues.

Related stocks: BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) · FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) · ADC (Agree Realty Corporation) · REG (Regency Centers Corporation) · KIM (Kimco Realty Corporation (HC))