SM Energy Company (SM) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=3.6x,ratio=0.30x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — SM Energy Company
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Jun 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 1.02: SM Energy redeemed all $419,235,000 aggregate principal of its 6.75% Senior Notes due 2026 on June 1, 2026, satisfying all remaining Indenture obligations; notes and related guarantees cancelled upon settlement.
Latest news
- NEWS SM Energy, ProFrac, and Murphy Oil Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS SM Energy: Strong Buying Trends Since February Merger Should Continue - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS SM Energy's Strong Permian Footprint Signals Solid Growth Prospects - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS SM Energy double-upgraded at Raymond James on bullish oil outlook - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS SM Energy Company (SM) hits fresh high: Is there still room to run? - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-06-17T10:31:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-01Item 1.02MEDIUMSM Energy redeemed all $419,235,000 aggregate principal of its 6.75% Senior Notes due 2026 on June 1, 2026, satisfying all remaining Indenture obligations; notes and related guarantees cancelled upon settlement.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWSM Energy amended the Change of Control Executive Severance Agreement for CEO Elizabeth A. McDonald on May 21, 2026, providing 3x base salary plus target bonus upon qualifying termination within 2.5 years of a change of control; no departure or new appointment.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-12Item 1.02MEDIUMSM Energy redeemed all $400,000,000 aggregate principal of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2026 on May 11, 2026, satisfying all remaining Indenture obligations; notes and related guarantees cancelled upon settlement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $35.48 (+27.3%), stop $26.99 (−3.3%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $35.48 (+26.4% upside). Target $35.48 (+27.3%), stop $26.99 (−3.3%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $26.99.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Negative momentum.
SM Energy Company trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 3.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
22 analysts cover SM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $41.
What does SM Energy Company do?SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production...
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.