SM Energy delivered 73% revenue growth with 1000% free cash flow conversion and beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6 times that may reflect commodity-cycle peak earnings which could mean-revert sharply if oil and gas prices decline.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Growth Cash Conversion→Stable
- Commodity Cycle Peak Risk↓Deteriorating
- Strong Earnings Beat Record→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
SM Energy Company (SM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 8.5%.
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 8.5%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=4.5x,ratio=0.32x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — SM Energy Company
Latest news
- NEWS SM Energy, ProFrac, and Murphy Oil Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS SM Energy: Strong Buying Trends Since February Merger Should Continue - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS SM Energy's Strong Permian Footprint Signals Solid Growth Prospects - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Are High Oil Prices a Key Driver of SM's Energy Operations? - qz.com — qz.com positive
- NEWS SM Energy Co (SM) Shares Surge 3.0% -- What GF Score of 74 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-07-27T14:48:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-01Item 1.02MEDIUMSM Energy redeemed all $419,235,000 aggregate principal of its 6.75% Senior Notes due 2026 on June 1, 2026, satisfying all remaining Indenture obligations; notes and related guarantees cancelled upon settlement.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWSM Energy amended the Change of Control Executive Severance Agreement for CEO Elizabeth A. McDonald on May 21, 2026, providing 3x base salary plus target bonus upon qualifying termination within 2.5 years of a change of control; no departure or new appointment.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-12Item 1.02MEDIUMSM Energy redeemed all $400,000,000 aggregate principal of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2026 on May 11, 2026, satisfying all remaining Indenture obligations; notes and related guarantees cancelled upon settlement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 8.5%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $34.56 (+9.5%), stop $29.62 (−6.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $34.56 (+8.5% upside). Target $34.56 (+9.5%), stop $29.62 (−6.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $29.62.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
SM Energy Company trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
22 analysts cover SM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $38.
What does SM Energy Company do?SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production...
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.