J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality→Stable
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration→Stable
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $116.28: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products -- coffee, peanut butter, fruit spreads, frozen sandwiches, pet food, and sweet baked snacks -- sold mainly through U.S. retail outlets under brands including Folgers, Jif, Smucker's, Meow Mix,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $116.28: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart accounted for 33% of The J.M. Smucker Company's consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, and the top 10 customers combined for approximately 60%, concentrated mostly within the company's U.S. Retail Coffee, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, and Pet Foods segments. Smucker's sells branded food and beverage products -- including Folgers, Jif, Smucker's, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, and licensed Dunkin' and Hostess products -- with the majority of sales in the United States and employed over 8,000 people worldwide as of fiscal 2025.
Smucker's sells its branded products through a combination of direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, dollar stores, online retailers, and distributors, competing against both branded rivals -- including The Kraft Heinz Company, Nestle, Mars, and General Mills -- and growing private-label competition, which held a 15.2% dollar market share across the company's categories in the year ended April 2025, up from 13.7% a year earlier. Coffee, peanuts, flour, sugar, oils, and fruit are the company's principal raw material inputs; green coffee and certain other raw materials are sourced solely from foreign countries and subject to weather- and geopolitical-driven price volatility, while peanuts, flour, sugar, oils, and fruit are sourced mainly from North America. To manage supply risk on select inputs, Smucker's relies on single-source suppliers for K-Cup pods (Keurig), liquid coffee for its Away From Home business (JDE Peet's), and Folgers coffee packaging (Graham Packaging).
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A distinct exposure beyond routine commodity costs is single-source concentration on both the supply and production sides: Smucker's names Keurig as the sole supplier of K-Cup pods, JDE Peet's as the sole supplier of liquid coffee for its foodservice business, and Graham Packaging as the sole supplier of Folgers packaging, while substantially all of its coffee production is consolidated in New Orleans, Louisiana -- a market subject to hurricane risk. Because the company states alternative sources for these inputs could be obtained only on commercially reasonable terms rather than immediately, a disruption at any single supplier or at the New Orleans facility could constrain Folgers or K-Cup product availability well before an alternate source could be qualified.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 5, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS Alphabet, Unum Group, JM Smucker And More: CNBC’s ‘Final Trades’ — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Unum Group, J.M. Smucker Company, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, Alphabet — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $130 — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS Stock Of The Day: Is This The Top For J. M. Smucker? — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $125 — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart33%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in both 2025 and 2024'
- HIGHSupplierKeurig10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods, which are used in its proprietary Keurig® K-Cup® brewing system.'
- HIGHSupplierJDE Peet's10-K Item 1A: 'JDE Peet’s N.V. (“JDE Peet’s”) is our single-source supplier for liquid coffee for our Away From Home business'
- HIGHSupplierGraham Packaging10-K Item 1A: 'Graham Packaging Company, L.P. (“Graham Packaging”) is our single-source supplier for the packaging of our Folgers coffee products.'
- HIGHCommoditygreen coffee10-K Item 1: 'Green coffee, along with certain other raw materials, is sourced solely from foreign countries'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States10-K Item 1: 'the majority of our sales are in the United States'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $116.28: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $110.50. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $115.39 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $110.50. Stop-loss: $110.50.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig; Target reached (-5.3% upside).
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $122.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products -- coffee, peanut butter, fruit...
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products -- coffee, peanut butter, fruit spreads, frozen sandwiches, pet food, and sweet baked snacks -- sold mainly through U.S. retail outlets under brands including Folgers, Jif, Smucker's, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, and licensed Dunkin' and Hostess products. Walmart accounted for 33% of fiscal 2025 net sales and the top 10 customers combined for approximately 60%.