J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality→Stable
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $121.39: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality.
J.M. Smucker manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers, Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, and Hostess — sold primarily in the United States through four segments that comprised 86% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Walmart accounted... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $121.39: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries accounted for 33% of J.M. Smucker's net sales in fiscal 2025, and the company's top 10 customers together represented approximately 60% of consolidated net sales. The company operates four reportable segments — U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks — which together comprised 86% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, with the remaining 4% of total net sales generated outside the U.S.
J.M. Smucker earns revenue by manufacturing and marketing branded food and beverage products — coffee, peanut butter, fruit spreads, frozen sandwiches, pet food and snacks, and sweet baked goods — sold primarily through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers across North America. Key brands include Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin' (under license through January 2039), Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, and Hostess. Raw materials are largely agricultural commodities and packaging materials purchased from numerous suppliers, though the company sources certain plastic packaging for Folgers and Jif products, along with finished goods such as K-Cup pods, Pup-Peroni, and liquid coffee, from primary or single sources under long-term contracts. Green coffee is sourced solely from foreign countries and is subject to price volatility from weather, geopolitical conflicts, and agricultural policy changes.
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J.M. Smucker's customer concentration centers heavily on a single retailer: Walmart and its subsidiaries accounted for 33% of net sales in fiscal 2025, roughly unchanged from 34% two years earlier, while no other single customer exceeded 10%. Combined with a top-10 customer base representing approximately 60% of consolidated net sales amid ongoing consolidation among supermarkets, warehouse clubs, and food distributors, the 10-K acknowledges that a significant portion of future revenue will continue to depend on a limited number of large retail accounts — a structural feature of the packaged-food distribution model rather than a temporary condition the company expects to change.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $139 — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Senator Looks for Dividend Stocks: Latest Purchase Is Company with 673 Consecutive Monthly Payouts — benzinga Aug 11, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $125 — benzinga Jul 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS J.M. Smucker Board Increases Quarterly Dividend From $1.10 To $1.12 Per Share — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Alphabet, Unum Group, JM Smucker And More: CNBC’s ‘Final Trades’ — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T10:47:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart Inc.33%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in both 2025 and 2024 and 34 percent of net sales in 2023.'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States10-K Item 1: 'the majority of our sales are in the United States ("U.S.") ... Net sales outside the U.S., subject to foreign currency translation, represented 4 percent of consolidated net sales for 2025'
- HIGHSupplierprimary or single sources of supply10-K Item 1: 'we have elected to source certain plastic packaging materials for our Folgers® coffee products, as well as our Jif®peanut butter, and certain finished goods, such as K-Cup® pods, our Pup-Peroni®dog snacks, and liquid coffee, from primary or single sources of supply'
- HIGHCommoditygreen coffee10-K Item 1: 'Green coffee, along with certain other raw materials, is sourced solely from foreign countries, and its supply and price is subject to high volatility'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $121.39: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $114.77. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $123.93 (-7.4% upside). Prior stop was $114.77. Stop-loss: $114.77.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Target reached (-7.4% upside).
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $125.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?J.M. Smucker manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers, Jif, Smucker's,...
J.M. Smucker manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers, Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, and Hostess — sold primarily in the United States through four segments that comprised 86% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Walmart accounted for 33% of net sales, and the company's top 10 customers together represented approximately 60% of consolidated net sales.