J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality↓Deteriorating
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. At $128.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig.
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products across four segments — U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks — sold primarily through retail outlets in North America under... Read more
Sell if holding. At $128.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Sales to Walmart Inc. and its subsidiaries made up 33% of J.M. Smucker's net sales in fiscal 2025, and its top 10 customers together accounted for approximately 60% of consolidated net sales. Smucker's operates four reportable segments — U.S. Retail Coffee, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks — comprising 86% of net sales, with just 4% generated outside the United States. The company employs more than 8,000 people worldwide.
J.M. Smucker sells branded products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, and mass merchandisers, competing against both national brands and private label, which held a 15.2% dollar share of the categories Smucker's competes in during the 52 weeks ended April 2025, up from 13.7% a year earlier. Key commodity inputs — green coffee, peanuts, flour, sugar, oils and fats, and fruit — are managed through futures, basis, options, and fixed-price contracts, with green coffee sourced solely from foreign countries and exposed to weather, geopolitical, and speculative price volatility. The company licenses the Dunkin' brand for packaged coffee under agreements running through January 2039, paying royalties to DD IP Holder LLC, and has divested several brands in recent years — including Voortman, Canada condiments, Sahale Snacks, and certain pet food and Sweet Baked Snacks lines — while acquiring Hostess Brands in November 2023.
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Beyond commodity price swings, Smucker's discloses concrete single-source dependencies most diversified food companies avoid naming: Keurig is the company's single-source supplier for K-Cup pods, JDE Peet's is the single-source supplier for liquid coffee sold in the Away From Home channel, and Graham Packaging is the single-source supplier for Folgers coffee packaging. Production is similarly concentrated — substantially all of the company's coffee, Milk-Bone dog snacks, and fruit spreads output comes from single manufacturing sites, with coffee production itself concentrated in New Orleans, Louisiana, a hurricane-exposed location. A loss of any of these single points — supplier or plant — would have no readily available backup within the segments affected.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Hold on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $136 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Bernstein Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $157 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JM Smucker Analysts Raise Their Forecasts After Upbeat Q1 Results — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $150 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $144 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-04T13:32:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart33%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in both 2025 and 2024 and 34 percent of net sales in 2023.'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- HIGHSupplierKeurig10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods, which are used in its proprietary Keurig® K-Cup® brewing system.'
- HIGHGeographicNew Orleans, Louisiana coffee production10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana and is subject to risks associated with hurricane and other weather-related events'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $128.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $121.01. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $133.17 (-0.9% upside). Prior stop was $121.01. Stop-loss: $121.01.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of 61.5 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $141.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products across four segments — U.S. Retail...
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products across four segments — U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks — sold primarily through retail outlets in North America under brands including Folgers, Jif, Smucker's, Milk-Bone, and Hostess. Walmart represents 33% of net sales, with the top 10 customers accounting for about 60%.