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SIMOSilicon Motion Technology CorpoBuy Wait6.3·$252.91-6.64%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Silicon Motion Technology delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, but the stock trades above the analyst consensus target with negative asymmetry and a free cash flow red flag that warrants caution before adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Revenue Growth RateStable
  • Consistent Earnings DeliveryStable
  • Free Cash Flow Quality ConcernStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Silicon Motion Technology Corpo (SIMO) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 2 days (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $229.94. At $252.91 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $229.94 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 9.9), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.08% of cap).

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets NAND flash controllers for solid-state storage devices and related devices in China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, the United States, and internationally. It offers... Read more

$252.91+2.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#9 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.36%
IncomeYield0.69%(5y avg 2.59%)Payout39.62%sustainable
Entry $229.94(1 ATR pullback)Stop $213.84Target $259.43(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$298.20+17.9%10 analysts
$259.43our TP
$252.91price
$298.20mean
$145
$450

Wait for pullback to $229.94. At $252.91 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $229.94 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 9.9), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.08% of cap). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 9.9), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.08% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)53.8
P/E (Fwd)26.5
Mkt Cap$9.2B
EV/EBITDA53.7
Profit Mgn16.0%
ROE20.3%
Rev Growth105.5%
Beta1.69
Dividend0.69%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.76bearish
IV133%elevated
Max Pain$135-46.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $245.00Resistance $341.00

Price Targets

$214
$230
$259
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.2% upside)
! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SIMO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $229.94. At $252.91 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $229.94 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 9.9), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.08% of cap). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $259.43 (+2.6%), stop $213.84 (−18.3%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SIMO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $259.43 (+2.2% upside). Target $259.43 (+2.6%), stop $213.84 (−18.3%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $213.84.

What are the risks of investing in SIMO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 9.9), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.08% of cap).

Is SIMO overvalued or undervalued?

Silicon Motion Technology Corpo trades at a P/E of 53.8 (forward 26.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SIMO?

18 analysts cover SIMO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $298.

What does Silicon Motion Technology Corpo do?Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets NAND flash...

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets NAND flash controllers for solid-state storage devices and related devices in China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, the United States, and internationally. It offers controllers for computing-grade solid state drives (SSDs), which are used in PCs and other client devices; enterprise-grade SSDs used in enterprise and hyperscale data centers; eMMC and UFS mobile embedded storage for use in smartphones and IoT devices; flash memory cards and flash drives for use in expandable storage; and specialized SSDs that are used in industrial, commercial, and automotive applications. The company markets its controllers under the SMI brand; and single-chip SSDs under the FerriSSD, Ferri-eMMC, and Ferri-UFS brands. It markets and sells its products through direct sales personnel and independent electronics distributors to NAND flash makers, module makers, hyperscalers, and OEMs. Silicon Motion Technology Corporation was founded in 1995 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

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