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Microchip Technology Incorporat (MCHP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: outside wafer foundries (64.0%).

Microchip Technology develops and manufactures embedded control solutions including microcontrollers, microprocessors, FPGAs, and analog/memory products for automotive, aerospace, industrial, data center, and consumer markets. About 75% of fiscal 2025 net sales were to foreign... Read more

$91.70-1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#34 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $85.32Target $90.40(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$87.92-4.1%24 analysts
$90.40our TP
$91.70price
$87.92mean
$69
$115

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: outside wafer foundries (64.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: outside wafer foundries (64.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)33.9
Mkt Cap$48.8B
EV/EBITDA55.1
Profit Mgn-1.6%
ROE-1.1%
Rev Growth15.6%
Beta1.47
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$40-56.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplieroutside wafer foundries64%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 64% of our net sales came from products that were produced at outside wafer foundries'
  • LOWGeographicChina17%
    10-K Item 1A: 'During fiscal 2025, approximately 75% of our net sales were made to foreign customers, including 17% in China and 16% in Taiwan.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.2
Value Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
4.4

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
2.6
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.2
Peg Ratio
6.8
Forward P/E: 33.9xPEG: 1.05

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $62.62Resistance $92.24

Price Targets

$85
$90
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCHP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $91.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: outside wafer foundries (64.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $85.32. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCHP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.40 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $85.32. Stop-loss: $85.32.

What are the risks of investing in MCHP?

Concentration risk — Supplier: outside wafer foundries (64.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away).

Is MCHP overvalued or undervalued?

Microchip Technology Incorporat trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 33.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCHP?

32 analysts cover MCHP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Microchip Technology Incorporat do?Microchip Technology develops and manufactures embedded control solutions including microcontrollers, microprocessors,...

Microchip Technology develops and manufactures embedded control solutions including microcontrollers, microprocessors, FPGAs, and analog/memory products for automotive, aerospace, industrial, data center, and consumer markets. About 75% of fiscal 2025 net sales were to foreign customers, with approximately 64% of products manufactured at outside wafer foundries.

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