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Microchip Technology Incorporat (MCHP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. At $93.54, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign customers (75.0%).

Microchip Technology develops and manufactures embedded control products—microcontrollers, FPGAs, analog, and memory—for approximately 109,000 customers globally across automotive, industrial, communications, and data center markets. Revenue is split roughly 45% through... Read more

$93.54+8.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#21 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.94%(5y avg 1.99%)Payout827.27%at-risk
Stop $87.28Target $101.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$113.24+21.1%25 analysts
$101.92our TP
$93.54price
$113.24mean
$75
$135

Sell if holding. At $93.54, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign customers (75.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Microchip Technology Incorporat

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign customers (75.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)426.6
P/E (Fwd)23.0
Mkt Cap$50.8B
EV/EBITDA45.3
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE3.4%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta1.74
Dividend1.94%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerArrow Electronics10%
    10-K Item 1: 'With the exception of Arrow Electronics, our largest distributor, which made up 10% and 12% of our net sales, in fiscal 2025 and in fiscal 2024, respectively'
  • HIGHGeographicforeign customers75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'During fiscal 2025, approximately 75% of our net sales were made to foreign customers, including 17% in China and 16% in Taiwan'
  • LOWGeographicChina17%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our net sales were made to foreign customers, including 17% in China and 16% in Taiwan'
  • LOWGeographicTaiwan16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our net sales were made to foreign customers, including 17% in China and 16% in Taiwan'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.3
Quality Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
7.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $78.42Resistance $105.91

Price Targets

$87
$102
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCHP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $93.54, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign customers (75.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $87.28. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCHP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.92 (+8.6% upside). Prior stop was $87.28. Stop-loss: $87.28.

What are the risks of investing in MCHP?

Concentration risk — Geographic: foreign customers (75.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is MCHP overvalued or undervalued?

Microchip Technology Incorporat trades at a P/E of 426.6 (forward 23.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCHP?

32 analysts cover MCHP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Microchip Technology Incorporat do?Microchip Technology develops and manufactures embedded control products—microcontrollers, FPGAs, analog, and...

Microchip Technology develops and manufactures embedded control products—microcontrollers, FPGAs, analog, and memory—for approximately 109,000 customers globally across automotive, industrial, communications, and data center markets. Revenue is split roughly 45% through distributors and 55% direct; Arrow Electronics, its largest distributor, represented 10% of net sales in fiscal 2025.

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