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SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedBuy Wait6.7·$14.17+0.00%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution RiskDeteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation High Analyst UpsideImproving
  • Elite Returns And Piotroski PerfectionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Wait for pullback to $14.02. BUY gates pass at $14.17, but sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $14.02 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America,... Read more

$14.17+19.7% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#1 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.07%
IncomeYield1.23%Payout18.07%sustainable
Entry $14.02(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $13.19Target $16.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$19.50+37.6%8 analysts
$16.96our TP
$14.17price
$19.50mean
$22

Wait for pullback to $14.02. BUY gates pass at $14.17, but sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $14.02 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.1
P/E (Fwd)16.0
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn15.1%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.1%
Beta1.09
Dividend1.23%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$10-29.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.2
52w Position
7.9
GatesMomentum 6.4>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.74Resistance $14.32

Price Targets

$13
$14
$17
A.Upside+19.7%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.4%
Max %2.8%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGHC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $14.02. BUY gates pass at $14.17, but sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5 argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $14.02 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $16.96 (+19.7%), stop $13.19 (−7.4%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.96 (+19.7% upside). Target $16.96 (+19.7%), stop $13.19 (−7.4%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $13.19.

What are the risks of investing in SGHC?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited trades at a P/E of 19.1 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SGHC?

14 analysts cover SGHC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Super Group (SGHC) Limited do?Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an...

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

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