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SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedSell6.5·$14.51+3.87%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution RiskStable
  • Attractive Valuation High Analyst UpsideStable
  • Elite Returns And Piotroski PerfectionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Sell if holding. At $14.51, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (1.3% away).

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America,... Read more

$14.51+8.7% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.17%Payout35.23%sustainable
Stop $13.49Target $15.77(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$18.13+24.9%8 analysts
$15.77our TP
$14.51price
$18.13mean
$22

Sell if holding. At $14.51, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.7%
Near 52-week high (1.3% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.2
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE35.9%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta1.08
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV164%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
9.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 117.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.63Resistance $14.70

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+8.7%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $14.51, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $13.49. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.77 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $13.49. Stop-loss: $13.49.

What are the risks of investing in SGHC?

Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (1.3% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited trades at a P/E of 30.2 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGHC?

14 analysts cover SGHC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Super Group (SGHC) Limited do?Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an...

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

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