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SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedBuy Wait6.8·$13.30+1.60%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution RiskDeteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation High Analyst UpsideDeteriorating
  • Elite Returns And Piotroski PerfectionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Wait for pullback to $12.48. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $13.30. Engine's entry $12.48 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Elevated risk factors.

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America,... Read more

$13.30+27.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.33%
IncomeYield1.30%Payout18.07%sustainable
Entry $12.48(support + ATR (held))Stop $11.54Target $16.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$19.50+46.6%8 analysts
$16.96our TP
$13.30price
$19.50mean
$22

Wait for pullback to $12.48. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $13.30. Engine's entry $12.48 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn15.1%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.1%
Beta1.09
Dividend1.30%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.32bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$14+5.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.74Resistance $15.86

Price Targets

$12
$12
$17
A.Upside+27.6%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts14
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$20

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGHC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $12.48. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $13.30. Engine's entry $12.48 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. Target $16.96 (+27.5%), stop $11.54 (−15.3%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.96 (+27.6% upside). Target $16.96 (+27.5%), stop $11.54 (−15.3%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Stop-loss: $11.54.

What are the risks of investing in SGHC?

Elevated risk factors.

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SGHC?

14 analysts cover SGHC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Super Group (SGHC) Limited do?Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an...

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.

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