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BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLC Trading Sell5.3·$9.49
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Brightstar Lottery screens attractively on valuation with a forward multiple of 12.4 times and a PEG ratio of 0.25, but a confirmed technical downtrend, a recent earnings miss, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 23.4 signal that the valuation case cannot be acted on until momentum stabilizes.

Thesis pillars

  • Compelling Valuation Analyst Upside→Stable
  • Strong Free Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Confirmed Price Downtrend↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading (BRSL) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueQualityHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $9.49: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority;... Read more

$9.49+40.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#6 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield253.10%
IncomeYield9.69%(5y avg 3.01%)Payout89.80%at-risk
Stop $8.87Analyst target $13.37(−13% haircut)A.R:R 6.2:1
Analyst consensus$15.36+61.9%8 analysts
$13.37Analyst target
$9.49price
$15.36mean
$19

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $9.49: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202612d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 45%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.7
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE15.2%
Rev Growth-7.4%
Beta1.15
Dividend9.69%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.64bearish
IV95%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -7.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.7
Declining revenue: -7%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
7.9
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 6.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
34 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.10Resistance $10.27

Price Targets

$9
$13
A.Upside+40.8%
A.R:R6.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BRSL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $9.49: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $8.87. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the BRSL stock price target?

Analyst target: $13.37 (+40.8% upside). Prior stop was $8.87. Stop-loss: $8.87.

What are the risks of investing in BRSL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Is BRSL overvalued or undervalued?

Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BRSL?

15 analysts cover BRSL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading do?Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The...

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority; operates and provides lottery transaction processing systems; produces instant ticket games; and offers printing services, such as instant ticket marketing plans and graphic design, programming, packaging, shipping, and delivery services, as well as lottery management services; instant lottery systems; and iLottery, a platform that provides access to eInstant and draw games. It also processes commercial transactions, such as prepaid cellular telephone recharges, bill payments, e-vouchers and retail-based programs, electronic tax payments, prepaid card recharges, stamp duty, and money transfer services; sells additional machines and central computers to expand existing systems or replace existing equipment; and licenses related software. In addition, the company provides marketing services, such as retail optimization and lottery brand awareness campaigns; telephone support, software and hardware maintenance, software development, and other professional services; and ancillary maintenance and support services for systems, equipment, and software. The company was formerly known as International Game Technology PLC and changed its name to Brightstar Lottery PLC in July 2025. Brightstar Lottery PLC was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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