Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
SGHC · Why this verdict
Why Super Group (SGHC) (SGHC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Super Group is a high-quality online gaming company with a 36% return on equity, a perfect Piotroski score of 9/9, and 33% analyst upside, but consecutive earnings misses and 12% short interest reflect real execution concerns that must be resolved before the investment case is fully validated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, including a significant miss of -23.4% in the most recent full quarter, suggesting analysts are consistently over-estimating near-term profitability and execution is lagging stated expectations. Bear case | Earnings beats return in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, demonstrating that the miss trend is cyclical rather than structural. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOnline gaming revenues can be lumpy and quarter-specific; a single bad beat quarter does not necessarily indicate a deteriorating business, and the prior beat of 27.3% shows the company can outperform. | ||
With a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3x, PEG ratio of 0.33, and analyst consensus implying 33% upside to the price target, the stock offers a compelling combination of growth and value that is not yet reflected in the current market price. Sentiment breakdown | The stock reaches within 10% of the $15.77 analyst price target over the next 12 months as earnings execution improves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst upside is computed from a lightly covered stock (8 analysts), and gaming stocks in uncertain regulatory environments frequently trade at discounts to stated targets. | ||
A 36% return on equity combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — and a wide economic moat assessment places Super Group among the highest-quality businesses in its peer group on quantitative metrics. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and Piotroski score stays at 9 over the next 12 months as the business continues compounding. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnline gaming businesses are highly sensitive to regulatory changes across jurisdictions; a single adverse regulatory ruling could rapidly impair the moat and compress returns. | ||
A golden cross breakout with RSI at 60 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms positive price momentum, but 12% short interest signals that a meaningful portion of the market anticipates a decline, creating a risk of sharp reversals on negative news. Key risks | Short interest falls below 8% of the float over the next 12 months as earnings execution improves and bears cover their positions. | ↓Deteriorating |
| Counter12% short interest in a mid-cap gaming name is not extreme and could fuel significant short-covering rallies if earnings results beat expectations. | ||
The company missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, including a significant miss of -23.4% in the most recent full quarter, suggesting analysts are consistently over-estimating near-term profitability and execution is lagging stated expectations.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings beats return in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, demonstrating that the miss trend is cyclical rather than structural.
CounterOnline gaming revenues can be lumpy and quarter-specific; a single bad beat quarter does not necessarily indicate a deteriorating business, and the prior beat of 27.3% shows the company can outperform.
With a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3x, PEG ratio of 0.33, and analyst consensus implying 33% upside to the price target, the stock offers a compelling combination of growth and value that is not yet reflected in the current market price.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches within 10% of the $15.77 analyst price target over the next 12 months as earnings execution improves.
CounterAnalyst upside is computed from a lightly covered stock (8 analysts), and gaming stocks in uncertain regulatory environments frequently trade at discounts to stated targets.
A 36% return on equity combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — and a wide economic moat assessment places Super Group among the highest-quality businesses in its peer group on quantitative metrics.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and Piotroski score stays at 9 over the next 12 months as the business continues compounding.
CounterOnline gaming businesses are highly sensitive to regulatory changes across jurisdictions; a single adverse regulatory ruling could rapidly impair the moat and compress returns.
A golden cross breakout with RSI at 60 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms positive price momentum, but 12% short interest signals that a meaningful portion of the market anticipates a decline, creating a risk of sharp reversals on negative news.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% of the float over the next 12 months as earnings execution improves and bears cover their positions.
Counter12% short interest in a mid-cap gaming name is not extreme and could fuel significant short-covering rallies if earnings results beat expectations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 50%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 5.4 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.65 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,802,157 (0.058% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.72
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE_WAITPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.06
Upside
+30.8%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.8) with weak momentum (3.7)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.8 and value 8.2 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 4.06 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.5, Value at 8.2, and Technical at 8.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9, and Insider at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.06 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Returns And Piotroski Perfection
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the moat and compounding quality are deteriorating.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses Execution Risk
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming a structural execution problem rather than cyclical variability.
- P3Attractive Valuation High Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $12.00, more than 12% below current levels, following a regulatory or earnings setback.
- P4Breakout Momentum Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of the float, more than 6 percentage points above current levels, signaling increased institutional bearishness.