Churchill Downs offers a compelling 29% upside to analyst consensus at a forward multiple of 12.7x with a PEG ratio near 1, but the stock sits in a confirmed downtrend, carries debt-to-equity of 4.4x, and converts only 32% of net income into free cash flow — a combination that demands the technical picture improve before the valuation gap can close.
Thesis pillars
- Elevated Debt Load↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation Material Upside→Stable
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Wait for pullback to $83.75. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $86.50. Engine's entry $83.75 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 15.4), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.06% of cap).
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through... Read more
Wait for pullback to $83.75. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $86.50. Engine's entry $83.75 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 15.4), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.06% of cap). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Churchill Downs, Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Churchill Downs (CHDN) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Churchill Downs (CHDN) to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS CHDN (Churchill Downs Incorporated) dips 1.14% after Q4 2025 EPS trails consensus analyst estimates by 8%. - Net Debt/EB — Xã Vĩnh Công negative
- NEWS CHURCHILL DOWNS ($CHDN) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Churchill Downs’s (NASDAQ:CHDN) Q1 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations - StockStory — StockStory neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T11:13:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $83.75. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $86.50. Engine's entry $83.75 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 15.4), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.06% of cap). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $117.96 (+36.4%), stop $78.68 (−9.9%), A.R:R 5.7:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $117.96 (+36.4% upside). Target $117.96 (+36.4%), stop $78.68 (−9.9%), A.R:R 5.7:1. Stop-loss: $78.68.
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 15.4), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.06% of cap).
Churchill Downs, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover CHDN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $136.
What does Churchill Downs, Incorporated do?Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for...
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through the acquisition, development, and operation of live and historical racing entertainment venues, the growth of the online wagering businesses, and the acquisition, development, and operation of regional casino gaming prop...