Skip to main content

Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $88.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through... Read more

$88.46+38.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 6 Gambling
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.04%
IncomeYield0.50%(5y avg 0.33%)Payout8.07%sustainable
Stop $82.13Target $119.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.3:1
Analyst target$137.75+55.7%12 analysts
$119.84our TP
$88.46price
$137.75mean
$155

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $88.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 17, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Churchill Downs, Incorporated

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 38%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn13.2%
ROE35.0%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.73
Dividend0.50%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.3
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
17 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $84.67Resistance $102.89

Price Targets

$82
$120
A.Upside+35.5%
A.R:R5.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHDN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $88.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 17, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $82.13. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the CHDN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.84 (+38.2% upside). Prior stop was $82.13. Stop-loss: $82.13.

What are the risks of investing in CHDN?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is CHDN overvalued or undervalued?

Churchill Downs, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHDN?

19 analysts cover CHDN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $138.

What does Churchill Downs, Incorporated do?Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for...

Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through the acquisition, development, and operation of live and historical racing entertainment venues, the growth of the online wagering businesses, and the acquisition, development, and operation of regional casino gaming prop...

Related stocks: SGHC (Super Group (SGHC) Limited) · RSI (Rush Street Interactive, Inc.) · BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading ) · DKNG (DraftKings Inc.) · FLUT (Flutter Entertainment plc)