Churchill Downs offers a compelling 29% upside to analyst consensus at a forward multiple of 12.7x with a PEG ratio near 1, but the stock sits in a confirmed downtrend, carries debt-to-equity of 4.4x, and converts only 32% of net income into free cash flow — a combination that demands the technical picture improve before the valuation gap can close.
Thesis pillars
- Elevated Debt Load↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation Material Upside↓Deteriorating
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Sell if holding. At $98.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through... Read more
Sell if holding. At $98.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Churchill Downs, Incorporated
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 28, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
Latest news
- NEWS Churchill Downs (CHDN) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) posts Q3 2026 sales in line with estimates - StockStory — StockStory Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Churchill Downs (CHDN) Matches Q3 Earnings Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.10 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) posts Q3 2026 sales in line with estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-28Item 5.02MEDIUM. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $98.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Prior stop was $91.16. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $110.34 (+12.6% upside). Prior stop was $91.16. Stop-loss: $91.16.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 80.
Churchill Downs, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 15.1 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts rate CHDN, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $127.
What does Churchill Downs, Incorporated do?Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for...
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through the acquisition, development, and operation of live and historical racing entertainment venues, the growth of the online wagering businesses, and the acquisition, development, and operation of regional casino gaming prop...