Churchill Downs offers a compelling 29% upside to analyst consensus at a forward multiple of 12.7x with a PEG ratio near 1, but the stock sits in a confirmed downtrend, carries debt-to-equity of 4.4x, and converts only 32% of net income into free cash flow — a combination that demands the technical picture improve before the valuation gap can close.
Thesis pillars
- Elevated Debt Load→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Material Upside→Stable
- Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $89.24: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $89.24: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Churchill Downs, Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS CHDN (Churchill Downs Incorporated) dips 1.14% after Q4 2025 EPS trails consensus analyst estimates by 8%. - Net Debt/EB — Xã Vĩnh Công negative
- NEWS CHURCHILL DOWNS ($CHDN) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Churchill Downs’s (NASDAQ:CHDN) Q1 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) Posts Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $997.97 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS CHDN (Churchill Downs Incorporated) dips 1.14% after Q4 2025 EPS trails consensus analyst estimates by 8%. - Retail Trad — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La negative
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $89.24: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $82.99. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $119.19 (+33.6% upside). Prior stop was $82.99. Stop-loss: $82.99.
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Churchill Downs, Incorporated trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover CHDN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $137.
What does Churchill Downs, Incorporated do?Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for...
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company's most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through the acquisition, development, and operation of live and historical racing entertainment venues, the growth of the online wagering businesses, and the acquisition, development, and operation of regional casino gaming prop...