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SDRLSeadrill LimitedSell5.2·$39.87+2.63%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Seadrill is an offshore drilling contractor with a compelling 33% analyst upside and an oversold RSI of 22 near Bollinger lower band support, but the company has missed earnings in 3 of 4 recent quarters and carries below-minimum business quality, reflecting a speculative recovery setup rather than a high-conviction investment.

Thesis pillars

  • Oversold Technical Bounce SetupStable
  • Analyst Upside SignificantStable
  • Consecutive Earnings Miss StreakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Seadrill Limited (SDRL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.87: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality.

Seadrill Limited contracts offshore drilling services to oil and gas companies on a dayrate basis, operating 10 of its 15 owned drilling units at December 31, 2025 — nine deepwater floaters and one harsh-environment jackup deployed across Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, Norway,... Read more

$39.87+22.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 10 Oil & Gas Drilling
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.57%
Stop $37.08Target $48.94(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$56.25+41.1%8 analysts
$48.94our TP
$39.87price
$56.25mean
$80

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.87: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Seadrill Limited

About Seadrill Limited

Seadrill Limited's 15-unit fleet at December 31, 2025 included 10 operating rigs — nine benign-environment deepwater floaters (six 7th generation and two 6th generation drillships, plus one semi-submersible) and one harsh-environment jackup — deployed across Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, Angola, Norway, and Namibia. Seadrill also managed two drilling units owned by Sonangol and employed approximately 3,000 people worldwide. Four customers — Petrobras (36%), Sonadrill (22%), Talos (11%), and LLOG (10%) — together represented 79% of 2025 operating revenues, with Brent crude closing at $60.85 per barrel at December 31, 2025.

Seadrill contracts drilling units to oil super-majors, state-owned national oil companies, and independent E&P companies at agreed dayrates for fixed contract terms or on a well-completion basis. The customer bears ancillary well costs and most drilling-success risk; Seadrill absorbs downtime risk, as equipment breakdown typically suspends dayrate earnings beyond contractual allowances. Petrobras's share of total operating revenues rose sharply from 18% in 2024 to 36% in 2025, while Sonadrill — the Angola joint venture with Sonangol — contributed a consistent 22% in both 2024 and 2025. Mobilization, demobilization, and capital addition fees supplement dayrate income on select contracts. The 10-K flags that in February 2026 two unnamed competitors announced a definitive agreement to combine — a consolidation that may allow the larger combined rival to offer pricing concessions and attract customers through greater scale and financial strength.

Show full overview

Petrobras's revenue share nearly doubled from 18% in 2024 to 36% in 2025, making a single state-owned oil company the dominant customer by a wide margin. Combined with Sonadrill at 22%, these two customers represented 58% of 2025 revenues. Drilling contracts may allow customers to terminate without cause upon payment of a fee, and national oil company customers may hold special statutory termination rights — creating binary revenue risk if either anchor customer renegotiates or exits. In March 2026, Seadrill disclosed via Form 8-K that Samir Ali replaced Simon Johnson as President and CEO effective March 12, 2026, adding a leadership transition to the concentrated customer profile.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

From Seadrill Limited's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Seadrill Limited

Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA8.5
Profit Mgn-5.0%
ROE-2.4%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta1.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.38bearish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerPetrobras36%
    10-K Item 1: 'customers had total revenues greater than 10% of our total operating revenues...Petrobras| 36 | %'
  • LOWCustomerSonadrill22%
    10-K Item 1: 'customers had total revenues greater than 10% of our total operating revenues...Sonadrill| 22 | %'
  • LOWCustomerTalos11%
    10-K Item 1: 'customers had total revenues greater than 10% of our total operating revenues...Talos| 11 | %'
  • LOWCustomerLLOG10%
    10-K Item 1: 'customers had total revenues greater than 10% of our total operating revenues...LLOG| 10 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Samir Ali (formerly EVP and Chief Commercial Officer) as President and CEO effective March 12, 2026, replacing Simon Johnson. No reason for Johnson's departure was cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-05Item 5.02LOW
    At the June 3, 2026 Annual General Meeting, shareholders approved Amendment No. 1 to the Amended and Restated Seadrill Limited 2022 Management Incentive Plan, previously approved by the Board. Routine compensatory arrangement update; no executive change.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
7.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Gross Margin
2.2
Operating Margin
2.9
Moat
5.1
Current Ratio
6.8
Piotroski F
8.9
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.31Resistance $46.60

Price Targets

$37
$49
A.Upside+22.7%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SDRL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.87: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.08. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SDRL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.94 (+22.7% upside). Prior stop was $37.08. Stop-loss: $37.08.

What are the risks of investing in SDRL?

Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is SDRL overvalued or undervalued?

Seadrill Limited trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SDRL?

16 analysts cover SDRL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $56.

What does Seadrill Limited do?Seadrill Limited contracts offshore drilling services to oil and gas companies on a dayrate basis, operating 10 of its...

Seadrill Limited contracts offshore drilling services to oil and gas companies on a dayrate basis, operating 10 of its 15 owned drilling units at December 31, 2025 — nine deepwater floaters and one harsh-environment jackup deployed across Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, Norway, Angola, and Namibia. Petrobras accounted for 36% of 2025 operating revenues and Sonadrill for 22%, with four customers together representing 79% of total revenues.

Related stocks: BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) · RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)) · NBR (Nabors Industries Ltd.) · SOC (Sable Offshore Corp.) · PDS (Precision Drilling Corporation)
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