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Noble Corporation plc A (NE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

Sell if holding. At $54.66, A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%).

Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25 floaters, 11 jackups) operating globally across deepwater and ultra-harsh environments. Revenue is earned on dayrate contracts with international oil companies;... Read more

$54.66-1.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#8 of 10 Oil & Gas Drilling
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.92%
IncomeYield3.68%Payout139.86%at-risk
Stop $50.91Target $53.52(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$50.00-8.5%10 analysts
$53.52our TP
$54.66price
$50.00mean
$32
$59

Sell if holding. At $54.66, A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Noble Corporation plc A

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%)
Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.0
P/E (Fwd)21.1
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn7.6%
ROE5.0%
Rev Growth-10.8%
Beta0.95
Dividend3.68%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerExxonMobil20%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerBP13%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerPetrobras13%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicUS Gulf27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicGuyana20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Kristin Holth resigned as Director effective at commencement of 2026 Annual General Meeting; will not stand for re-election. No disagreement with Board cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
4.4
Declining revenue: -11%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $46.82Resistance $54.61

Price Targets

$51
$54
A.Upside-2.1%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $54.66, A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $50.91. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.52 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $50.91. Stop-loss: $50.91.

What are the risks of investing in NE?

Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NE overvalued or undervalued?

Noble Corporation plc A trades at a P/E of 38.0 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NE?

21 analysts cover NE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Noble Corporation plc A do?Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25...

Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25 floaters, 11 jackups) operating globally across deepwater and ultra-harsh environments. Revenue is earned on dayrate contracts with international oil companies; ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% of 2025 revenues respectively.

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