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NENoble Corporation plc ASell4.8·$45.40-3.26%
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Noble Corporation plc A (NE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

Sell if holding. At $45.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%).

Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25 floaters, 11 jackups) operating globally across deepwater and ultra-harsh environments. Revenue is earned on dayrate contracts with international oil companies;... Read more

$45.40+17.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#9 of 10 Oil & Gas Drilling
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.16%
IncomeYield4.26%Payout139.86%at-risk
Stop $43.28Target $53.30(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$50.00+10.1%10 analysts
$53.30our TP
$45.40price
$50.00mean
$32
$59

Sell if holding. At $45.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Noble Corporation plc A

About Noble Corporation plc A

Noble Corporation plc's 2025 revenues were concentrated across three customers — ExxonMobil (19.7%), BP (13.2%), and Petrobras (12.5%) — and three geographies: the US Gulf (27.1%), Guyana (19.7%), and the North Sea (16.9%). Noble completed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore Drilling on September 4, 2024, bringing total fleet size to 36 rigs (25 floaters and 11 jackups) as of December 31, 2025, with approximately 4,500 employees. Fleet operations spanned Africa, Far East Asia, the North Sea, Oceania, South America, and the US Gulf.

Noble earns revenue through day-rate contracts awarded competitively with major integrated, independent, and national oil companies, with rates varying by rig specification, water depth capability, and market conditions. The company operates primarily through ultra-deepwater drillships (17 units capable of 12,000-foot water depths) and ultra-harsh environment jackups in Norway and the UK. Contract backlog at year-end 2025 was concentrated in four customers: ExxonMobil (23.7%), Shell plc (19.5%), BP (16.2%), and TotalEnergies (12.6%). Brent crude averaged $68 per barrel in 2025 and settled in the mid-to-high $60s in early 2026 — levels supportive of offshore activity, though management flagged near-term utilization headwinds from OPEC's stated intent to increase production and economic uncertainty from recent trade policy. Contracts with national oil companies such as Petrobras may expose Noble to greater commercial and political risks, including potential termination without cause under certain conditions.

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ExxonMobil stands as Noble's largest customer by both 2025 revenue share (19.7%) and contract backlog (23.7%), with multiple drillships contracted in Guyana — the company's second-largest revenue geography at 19.7% of 2025 revenues. This overlap means a single-country disruption in Guyana could simultaneously affect both the dominant customer relationship and the second-most-important geography. The 10-K states that if ExxonMobil were to terminate contracts and Noble were unable to find replacement customers promptly, the impact on financial condition and results of operations could be material.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

From Noble Corporation plc A's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%)
Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.8
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn7.6%
ROE5.0%
Rev Growth-10.8%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.26%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerExxonMobil20%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerBP13%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerPetrobras13%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicUS Gulf27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicGuyana20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Kristin Holth resigned as Director effective at commencement of 2026 Annual General Meeting; will not stand for re-election. No disagreement with Board cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
4.4
Declining revenue: -11%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
7.2
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.62Resistance $54.39

Price Targets

$43
$53
A.Upside+17.4%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $45.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $43.28. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.30 (+17.2% upside). Prior stop was $43.28. Stop-loss: $43.28.

What are the risks of investing in NE?

Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NE overvalued or undervalued?

Noble Corporation plc A trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NE?

20 analysts cover NE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Noble Corporation plc A do?Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25...

Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25 floaters, 11 jackups) operating globally across deepwater and ultra-harsh environments. Revenue is earned on dayrate contracts with international oil companies; ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% of 2025 revenues respectively.

Related stocks: BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) · RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)) · PDS (Precision Drilling Corporation) · SOC (Sable Offshore Corp.) · NBR (Nabors Industries Ltd.)
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