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RACEFerrari N.V.Sell5.4·$351.57+1.32%
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Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. At $351.57, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after... Read more

$351.57+7.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.61%
IncomeYield1.22%(5y avg 0.66%)Payout33.21%sustainable
Stop $330.25Target $379.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$435.86+24.0%14 analysts
$379.20our TP
$351.57price
$435.86mean
$530

Sell if holding. At $351.57, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-08
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.9%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.2
P/E (Fwd)28.1
Mkt Cap$61.1B
EV/EBITDA25.8
Profit Mgn22.2%
ROE42.0%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta0.59
Dividend1.22%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$255-27.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.8
Bollinger
1.9
52w Position
3.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.3
Revenue Growth
3.3

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Peg Ratio
3.2
Pe
3.9
Forward Pe
4.4
Ps
4.5
Analyst Target
6.0
Forward P/E: 28.1xPEG: 3.84
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Conservative
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $319.72Resistance $358.39

Price Targets

$330
$379
A.Upside+7.9%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RACE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $351.57, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Prior stop was $330.25. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RACE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $379.20 (+7.9% upside). Prior stop was $330.25. Stop-loss: $330.25.

What are the risks of investing in RACE?

Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is RACE overvalued or undervalued?

Ferrari N.V. trades at a P/E of 33.2 (forward 28.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RACE?

25 analysts cover RACE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $436.

What does Ferrari N.V. do?Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance...

Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after sales, repair, maintenance, and restoration services for cars; and licenses its Ferrari brand to various producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods. In addition, it operates Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello; Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello; and theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain. Further, the company provides direct or indirect finance and leasing services; range of financial and ancillary services; special financing arrangements; and operates franchised and owned Ferrari stores. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy.

Related stocks: VFS (VinFast Auto Ltd.) · NIO (NIO Inc.) · TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) · PSNYW (Polestar Automotive Holding UK ) · HMC (Honda Motor Company, Ltd.)
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