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Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $331.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after... Read more

$331.81+17.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.72%
IncomeYield1.30%(5y avg 0.64%)Payout33.21%sustainable
Stop $310.13Target $381.86(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$438.92+32.3%14 analysts
$381.86our TP
$331.81price
$438.92mean
$535

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $331.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: conservative.

Recent Developments — Ferrari N.V.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.5
P/E (Fwd)26.0
Mkt Cap$57.3B
EV/EBITDA24.2
Profit Mgn22.2%
ROE42.0%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta0.59
Dividend1.30%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.61bearish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$250-24.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.3
Revenue Growth
3.3

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Conservative
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $319.72Resistance $368.90

Price Targets

$310
$382
A.Upside+15.1%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RACE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $331.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $310.13. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RACE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $381.86 (+17.6% upside). Prior stop was $310.13. Stop-loss: $310.13.

What are the risks of investing in RACE?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is RACE overvalued or undervalued?

Ferrari N.V. trades at a P/E of 30.5 (forward 26.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RACE?

27 analysts cover RACE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $439.

What does Ferrari N.V. do?Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance...

Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after sales, repair, maintenance, and restoration services for cars; and licenses its Ferrari brand to various producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods. In addition, it operates Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello; Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello; and theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain. Further, the company provides direct or indirect finance and leasing services; range of financial and ancillary services; special financing arrangements; and operates franchised and owned Ferrari stores. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy.

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