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RACEFerrari N.V.Sell5.7·$432.45
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ferrari is an exceptional business with the highest Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a 42% ROE, and rising earnings estimates, but it trades at a forward P/E of 29.7x with only 4.4% upside to the analyst target, and two consecutive modest earnings misses raise questions about whether the premium valuation is sustainable.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Piotroski Financial Strength↓Deteriorating
  • Rich Valuation Limited Upside↓Deteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $432.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.1% away).

Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after... Read more

$432.45-6.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 12 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield0.98%(5y avg 0.65%)Payout37.93%sustainable
Stop $416.21Analyst target $403.91(reached)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst consensus$464.27+7.4%12 analysts with price targets
$432.45price
$464.27mean
$404
$524

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $432.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Ferrari N.V.

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:09Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Feb 9, 202796d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.1% away)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.1
P/E (Fwd)34.9
Mkt Cap$75.8B
EV/EBITDA33.6
Profit Mgn22.5%
ROE—
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta0.66
Dividend0.98%
Analysts with ratings25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.38bearish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$335-22.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
7.3

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Forward Pe
3.0
Pe
3.1
Peg Ratio
3.3
Ps
3.4
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward P/E: 34.9xPEG: 3.67Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $383.60Resistance $433.99

Price Targets

A.Upside-6.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-09 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RACE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $432.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $416.21. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RACE stock price target?

Analyst target $403.91 reached (−6.6% from $432.45); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $416.21. Stop-loss: $416.21.

What are the risks of investing in RACE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is RACE overvalued or undervalued?

Ferrari N.V. trades at a P/E of 39.1 (forward 34.9). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RACE?

25 analysts rate RACE, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $464.

What does Ferrari N.V. do?Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance...

Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after sales, repair, maintenance, and restoration services for cars; and licenses its Ferrari brand to various producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods. In addition, it operates Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello; Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello; and theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain. Further, the company provides direct or indirect finance and leasing services; range of financial and ancillary services; special financing arrangements; and operates franchised and owned Ferrari stores. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy.

Related stocks: TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) · RIVN (Rivian Automotive, Inc.) · HMC (Honda Motor Company, Ltd.) · VFS (VinFast Auto Ltd.) · GM (General Motors Company)
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