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NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.20: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging... Read more

$6.20+11.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
Stop $5.79Target $6.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$6.66+7.4%23 analysts
$6.86our TP
$6.20price
$6.66mean
$4
$9

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.20: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-2.4% upside)
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-323.1
Mkt Cap$16.0B
EV/EBITDA-3.5
Profit Mgn-17.8%
ROE-118.7%
Rev Growth75.9%
Beta0.99
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$1-91.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.6
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
3.9
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.97Resistance $7.00

Price Targets

$6
$7
A.Upside+10.6%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NIO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.20: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $5.79. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NIO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.86 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $5.79. Stop-loss: $5.79.

What are the risks of investing in NIO?

Target reached (-2.4% upside); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is NIO overvalued or undervalued?

NIO Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -323.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NIO?

31 analysts cover NIO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $7.

What does NIO Inc. do?NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It...

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery-swapping service; Power Charger and Destination Charger; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for power valet service. In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, car beauty, and inspection services through its service centers and authorized third-party service centers; vehicle transportation and delivery, pre-delivery inspections, guidance on vehicle features, assistance with vehicle registration, and insurance processing services; insurance, maintenance, repairs, accident rescue, car washing, chauffeur services, and valet parking services; and remote monitoring and real-time diagnostics services, as well as technical, warranty, and auto financing arrangements. Further, the company is involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of electric powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after-sales management activities. Additionally, it operates in app NIO Auto Mall where users can select from various accessories and value added services; and online auction platform. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017. NIO Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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