Skip to main content

Honda Motor Company, Ltd. (HMC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.27: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 8.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Motorcycle Business, Automobile Business, Financial Services Business, and... Read more

$24.27+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#7 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
Stop $23.44Target $24.90(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$28.28+16.5%3 analysts
$24.90our TP
$24.27price
$28.28mean
$23
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.27: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 8.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-0.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)4.8
Mkt Cap$31.1B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE4.3%
Rev Growth-3.4%
Beta0.27
Dividend5.79%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C8.00bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$18-27.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Fcf Quality
0.6
Roa
0.9
Operating Margin
1.1
Net Margin
1.2
Roe
1.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.1
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 8% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend
10.0
Estimates down -5.3% (30d)Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 14 daysDividend: 579.0%
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.25Resistance $25.41

Price Targets

$23
$25
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-14 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.27: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 8.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $23.44. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.90 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $23.44. Stop-loss: $23.44.

What are the risks of investing in HMC?

Target reached (-0.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is HMC overvalued or undervalued?

Honda Motor Company, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 4.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HMC?

26 analysts cover HMC with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Honda Motor Company, Ltd. do?Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products in Japan,...

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Motorcycle Business, Automobile Business, Financial Services Business, and Power Product and Other Businesses. The Motorcycle Business segment produces motorcycles, including sports, business, and commuter models; and various off-road vehicles, such as all-terrain vehicles and side-by-sides. The Automobile Business segment offers passenger cars, light trucks, and mini vehicles. The Financial Services Business segment provides various financial services, including retail lending and leasing services to customers, as well as wholesale financing services to dealers. The Power Product and Other Businesses manufactures and sells power products, such as general-purpose engines, lawn mowers, generators, water pumps, brush cutters, and tillers. This segment also offers HondaJet aircraft. The company also sells spare parts; and provides after-sales services through retail dealers directly, as well as through independent distributors and licensees. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Related stocks: XPEV (XPeng Inc.) · VFS (VinFast Auto Ltd.) · NIO (NIO Inc.) · STLA (Stellantis N.V.) · RACE (Ferrari N.V.)