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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.47: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Rivian designs and manufactures electric vehicles—the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and commercial Electric Delivery Vans—at its Normal, Illinois factory. Revenue spans Automotive sales and Software & Services (including Volkswagen Group Joint Venture software licensing); R2 mid-size SUV... Read more

$13.47+21.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#11 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-7.52%
Stop $12.53Target $16.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$18.15+34.8%26 analysts
$16.34our TP
$13.47price
$18.15mean
$9
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.47: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Rivian Automotive, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-6.8
Mkt Cap$17.3B
EV/EBITDA-5.5
Profit Mgn-63.6%
ROE-65.7%
Rev Growth11.4%
Beta1.65
DividendNone
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$5-62.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
7.3
Cash-burning: FCF -24% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Value Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
4.4
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5INSIDER 5.76%=EXTREMEA.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.65Resistance $17.78

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+21.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Insider activity: 5.76%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIVN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.47: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $12.53. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RIVN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.34 (+21.3% upside). Prior stop was $12.53. Stop-loss: $12.53.

What are the risks of investing in RIVN?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is RIVN overvalued or undervalued?

Rivian Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIVN?

35 analysts cover RIVN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Rivian Automotive, Inc. do?Rivian designs and manufactures electric vehicles—the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and commercial Electric Delivery Vans—at its...

Rivian designs and manufactures electric vehicles—the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and commercial Electric Delivery Vans—at its Normal, Illinois factory. Revenue spans Automotive sales and Software & Services (including Volkswagen Group Joint Venture software licensing); R2 mid-size SUV deliveries planned Q2 2026.

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