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RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc.Sell4.7·$15.91-4.62%
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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

Rivian Automotive manufactures battery-electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois plant — capacity up to 215,000 units annually across R1T, R1S, and Electric Delivery Van platforms — selling directly to consumer and commercial customers in two segments: Automotive and Software... Read more

$15.91+2.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#13 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-5.82%
Stop $14.81Target $16.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$18.15+14.1%26 analysts
$16.34our TP
$15.91price
$18.15mean
$9
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news soft restructuring. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or limited-source suppliers
Target reached (2.6% upside)
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-8.8
Mkt Cap$22.4B
EV/EBITDA-7.1
Profit Mgn-63.6%
ROE-65.7%
Rev Growth11.4%
Beta1.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.99neutral
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$40+151.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerone customer affiliate of principal stockholder
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our automotive revenues has been from one customer that is an affiliate of one of our principal stockholders'
  • MEDIUMCustomerVolkswagen Group
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our software and services revenues has been from Volkswagen Group'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle- or limited-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'hundreds of mostly single- or limited-source suppliers, for which no immediate or readily available alternative supplier exists'
  • MEDIUMSupplierbattery raw materials (lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt)
    10-K Item 1: 'Battery raw materials, including lithium, nickel, graphite, and cobalt, represent one of the most vulnerable parts of our supply chain'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
7.3
Cash-burning: FCF -24% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotNEWS SOFT RESTRUCTURINGMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.65Resistance $18.55

Price Targets

$15
$16
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIVN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $14.81. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RIVN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.34 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.81. Stop-loss: $14.81.

What are the risks of investing in RIVN?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or limited-source suppliers; Target reached (2.6% upside); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is RIVN overvalued or undervalued?

Rivian Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIVN?

34 analysts cover RIVN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Rivian Automotive, Inc. do?Rivian Automotive manufactures battery-electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois plant — capacity up to 215,000 units...

Rivian Automotive manufactures battery-electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois plant — capacity up to 215,000 units annually across R1T, R1S, and Electric Delivery Van platforms — selling directly to consumer and commercial customers in two segments: Automotive and Software and Services. Amazon holds an initial order of 100,000 EDVs globally; a joint venture with Volkswagen Group licenses Rivian's software and electrical architecture across VW brands.

Related stocks: NIO (NIO Inc.) · VFS (VinFast Auto Ltd.) · TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) · RACE (Ferrari N.V.) · STLA (Stellantis N.V.)
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