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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality.

Rivian is an American EV manufacturer making the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and Electric Delivery Vans at its Normal, Illinois factory. It sells directly to consumers and commercial customers. A Joint Venture with Volkswagen Group develops software architecture for multiple VW brands.

$16.50+7.4% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#15 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
Stop $15.33Target $17.71(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$18.16+10.1%25 analysts
$17.71our TP
$16.50price
$18.16mean
$9
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: affiliate of principal stockholder
Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or limited-source suppliers
Target reached (-0.9% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-8.3
Mkt Cap$20.2B
EV/EBITDA-6.8
Profit Mgn-67.7%
ROE-65.0%
Rev Growth-25.8%
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV96%elevated
Max Pain$5-69.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomeraffiliate of principal stockholder
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our automotive revenues has been from one customer that is an affiliate of one of our principal stockholders.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle- or limited-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our products contain thousands of raw materials and product components that we purchase from hundreds of mostly single- or limited-source suppliers, for which no immediate or readily available alternative supplier exists.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -25.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -26%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.0
Cash-burning: FCF -15% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
1.2
Value Rank
2.0
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.43Resistance $18.07

Price Targets

$15
$18
A.Upside+7.3%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIVN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $15.33. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the RIVN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.71 (+7.4% upside). Prior stop was $15.33. Stop-loss: $15.33.

What are the risks of investing in RIVN?

Concentration risk — Customer: affiliate of principal stockholder; Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or limited-source suppliers; Target reached (-0.9% upside).

Is RIVN overvalued or undervalued?

Rivian Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIVN?

36 analysts cover RIVN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Rivian Automotive, Inc. do?Rivian is an American EV manufacturer making the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and Electric Delivery Vans at its Normal,...

Rivian is an American EV manufacturer making the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and Electric Delivery Vans at its Normal, Illinois factory. It sells directly to consumers and commercial customers. A Joint Venture with Volkswagen Group develops software architecture for multiple VW brands.

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