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Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $191.78: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.... Read more

$191.78+13.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
Stop $184.60Target $217.20(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$255.52+33.2%4 analysts
$217.20our TP
$191.78price
$255.52mean
$290

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $191.78: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.7
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$226.5B
EV/EBITDA4.7
Profit Mgn7.3%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.36
Dividend3.00%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.16bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$300+56.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
1.8
Roe
3.3
Operating Margin
3.5
Net Margin
3.7
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.8
Moat
5.0
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $190.31Resistance $219.85

Price Targets

$185
$217
A.Upside+13.3%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-08 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $191.78: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $184.60. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $217.20 (+13.3% upside). Prior stop was $184.60. Stop-loss: $184.60.

What are the risks of investing in TM?

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is TM overvalued or undervalued?

Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TM?

26 analysts cover TM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $256.

What does Toyota Motor Corporation do?Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial...

Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. It operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.

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