Toyota Motor offers deep valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and PEG of 0.49 with 42% analyst-implied upside, but a falling-knife price pattern, negative free cash flow quality, and an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 24.86 signal significant near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Forward Pe→Stable
- Falling Knife Pattern Risk→Stable
- Extremely Elevated Put Call↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $185.57: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $185.57: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-07Recent Developments — Toyota Motor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Toyota Motor North America Reports September 2026 U.S. Sales Of 201,306 Vehicles, Up 8.4 Percent On A Volume Basis — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported Sept. 30: Toyota Plans To Invest $1.341B In Argentina To Construct Production Plant For EVs — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS Constellation Energy-Amazon Lock 20-Year Nuclear Power Purchase Agreement, Stock Soars — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 'Toyota Eyes Selling Japan’s Answer to Rolls-Royce Around the World- Bloomberg — benzinga Sep 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported Earlier, Toyota August Global Production Falls 5.9% YoY To 700,860 Vehicles; Global Sales Drop 6.4% To 790,743 — benzinga Sep 29, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-07T11:32:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $185.57: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $179.75. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $198.97 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $179.75. Stop-loss: $179.75.
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover TM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $234.
What does Toyota Motor Corporation do?Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial...
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. It has strategic manufacturing alliance with Joby Aviation, Inc. to establish a joint venture to realize air mobility. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.