Toyota Motor offers deep valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and PEG of 0.49 with 42% analyst-implied upside, but a falling-knife price pattern, negative free cash flow quality, and an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 24.86 signal significant near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Forward Pe→Stable
- Falling Knife Pattern Risk→Stable
- Extremely Elevated Put Call→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.36: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 5.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.47; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.36: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 5.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.47; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 40. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-29Recent Developments — Toyota Motor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Toyota May 2026: Parent-Only Global Sales Fall 7.2% YoY To 834,279 Units, Global Production Down 5.5% To 765,470 Vehicle — benzinga Jun 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Toyota Recalls 20,991 Units Of 2026 Toyota BZ, Lexus RZ And Subaru Solterra EVs Over Battery ECU Fault Causing Loss Of D — benzinga Jun 25, 2026 negative
- NEWS Reported June 23: 'Toyota to slash even more output abroad as Iran war crimps demand' - Nikkei Asia — benzinga Jun 24, 2026 negative
- NEWS GM, Toyota And Other Automakers Warn California Car Sales Could Halt In July If This Legislation Is Not Delayed — benzinga Jun 24, 2026 negative
- NEWS Toyota Motor North America: Reported May 2026 U.S. Sales Of 238,800 Vehicle; May 2026 U.S. Electrified Sales Totaled 137 — benzinga Jun 2, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-29T23:53:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.36: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 5.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.47; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 40. Prior stop was $164.60. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $218.05 (+27.2% upside). Prior stop was $164.60. Stop-loss: $164.60.
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).
Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.4 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover TM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $257.
What does Toyota Motor Corporation do?Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial...
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.