Value
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.0 |
| PEG | 3.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 30.1x
- ▸PEG: 4.09
RACE · Why this verdict
Why Ferrari (RACE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, Ferrari demonstrates strength across all nine financial health indicators — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — placing it in the top tier of quality companies in the data universe. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or higher across the next two annual reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical financial health; it does not prevent the stock from declining when already richly valued, as evidenced by the confirmed death cross despite the company's excellent fundamentals. | ||
Trading at a forward P/E of 29.7x with a PEG ratio of 4.07 and only 4.4% upside to the analyst consensus price target of $385.29, Ferrari's valuation already incorporates a substantial quality and scarcity premium that leaves minimal room for multiple expansion. Bear case | Analyst price targets rise above $420 following continued revenue growth and margin improvement. | →Stable |
| CounterFerrari's brand scarcity model commands a durable premium multiple; the PEG ratio is high because earnings per share growth is solid and the brand cannot be replicated, justifying a sustained premium to the market. | ||
Ferrari has missed earnings estimates in the two most recent quarters, reporting $2.33 against a $2.37 estimate in May 2026 and $2.14 against $2.20 in February 2026, reversing the prior two-quarter beat streak and suggesting the high consensus bar is becoming difficult to clear. Earnings | The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBoth misses were minor (below 3% negative surprise), and the prior two beats showed the company can outperform; the misses may reflect timing of vehicle deliveries rather than structural margin compression. | ||
Despite the recent earnings misses, the analyst community has been revising earnings estimates upward, which combined with positive news sentiment of +1.00 and strong volume accumulation suggests growing institutional confidence in Ferrari's multi-year earnings trajectory. Bull case | Earnings estimates for the next four quarters rise by more than 5% on a cumulative basis. | →Stable |
| CounterRising estimates after a period of misses may set a higher bar that is even harder to clear in subsequent quarters, increasing the probability of continued negative surprises. | ||
With a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, Ferrari demonstrates strength across all nine financial health indicators — profitability, leverage, operating efficiency, and liquidity — placing it in the top tier of quality companies in the data universe.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or higher across the next two annual reporting cycles.
CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical financial health; it does not prevent the stock from declining when already richly valued, as evidenced by the confirmed death cross despite the company's excellent fundamentals.
Trading at a forward P/E of 29.7x with a PEG ratio of 4.07 and only 4.4% upside to the analyst consensus price target of $385.29, Ferrari's valuation already incorporates a substantial quality and scarcity premium that leaves minimal room for multiple expansion.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise above $420 following continued revenue growth and margin improvement.
CounterFerrari's brand scarcity model commands a durable premium multiple; the PEG ratio is high because earnings per share growth is solid and the brand cannot be replicated, justifying a sustained premium to the market.
Ferrari has missed earnings estimates in the two most recent quarters, reporting $2.33 against a $2.37 estimate in May 2026 and $2.14 against $2.20 in February 2026, reversing the prior two-quarter beat streak and suggesting the high consensus bar is becoming difficult to clear.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
CounterBoth misses were minor (below 3% negative surprise), and the prior two beats showed the company can outperform; the misses may reflect timing of vehicle deliveries rather than structural margin compression.
Despite the recent earnings misses, the analyst community has been revising earnings estimates upward, which combined with positive news sentiment of +1.00 and strong volume accumulation suggests growing institutional confidence in Ferrari's multi-year earnings trajectory.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Earnings estimates for the next four quarters rise by more than 5% on a cumulative basis.
CounterRising estimates after a period of misses may set a higher bar that is even harder to clear in subsequent quarters, increasing the probability of continued negative surprises.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ferrari is an exceptional business with the highest Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a 42% ROE, and rising earnings estimates, but it trades at a forward P/E of 29.7x with only 4.4% upside to the analyst target, and two consecutive modest earnings misses raise questions about whether the premium valuation is sustainable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.7 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.8 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 42%
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 62% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 115.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.4>=7.5+momentum=5.2>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
0.53
Upside
+4.0%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityConservative — Beta 0.59<0.8, Div 115.0%, Q=8.4
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.53 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.4, Sentiment at 7.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Growth at 2.8, and Value at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Piotroski Financial Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any reported annual period.
- P2Rich Valuation Limited Upside
Trip ifThe forward P/E expands above 35x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth expectations.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Rising Earnings Estimates Momentum
Trip ifEarnings estimate revisions turn negative for at least 2 consecutive quarters, declining by more than 3% in aggregate.