Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 3.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.1x
- ▸PEG: 3.84
RACE · Why this verdict
Why Ferrari (RACE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.7 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.8 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 42%
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 62% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $255
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 122.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.4>=7.5+momentum=6.5>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
0.87
Upside
+7.9%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityCONSERVATIVE — Beta 0.59<0.8, Div 122.0%, Q=8.4
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.87 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.4, Sentiment at 8.2, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Growth at 2.8, and Value at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.