PayPal combines a forward P/E of 7.4x, PEG of 0.77, 25% return on equity, and a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak with 47% margin of safety versus analyst targets, but is constrained by weak revenue growth, a confirmed downtrend in the 200-day moving average, and an extreme put/call ratio of 9.73.
Thesis pillars
- Value And Buyback Quality→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Downtrend Below 200ma↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Wait for pullback to $50.37. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $56.02. Engine's entry $50.37 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
PayPal operates a two-sided global payment network that connected 439 million active accounts in approximately 200 markets to process $1.79 trillion in total payment volume across 25.4 billion transactions in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from transaction fees charged to... Read more
Wait for pullback to $50.37. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $56.02. Engine's entry $50.37 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst cluster(6), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About PayPal Holdings, Inc.
About PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PayPal processed $1.79 trillion in total payment volume across 25.4 billion transactions in 2025, connecting 439 million active accounts in approximately 200 markets on a two-sided network serving both consumers and merchants. Revenue is earned primarily through per-transaction fees; research and development expense totaled $1.5 billion in both 2025 and 2024. The company's US subsidiary holds money transmitter licenses in each state requiring them, plus licenses in the District of Columbia and certain territories.
PayPal earns merchant-side revenue from branded checkout fees (PayPal and Venmo), unbranded payment processing, and BNPL solutions embedded at checkout. Consumer-side revenue includes foreign currency conversion fees, instant transfer fees, cryptocurrency buy/sell revenue, and interest and fees from credit products. The PayPal Working Capital and PayPal Business Loan programs charge fixed fees for merchant financing; in the US, these programs operate under agreements with an independent chartered financial institution. European customers are served through PayPal (Europe) S.à.r.l. et Cie, S.C.A., a Luxembourg-licensed credit institution, while most non-US, non-EEA customers transact through PayPal Pte. Ltd. in Singapore, which holds a Major Payment Institution license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore issued in July 2023. The company's two-sided data position—visibility into both buyer and seller transaction flows—informs its fraud detection, personalization, and risk management offerings, which in turn support merchant conversion rates.
Show full overview
PayPal faces multi-jurisdictional regulatory exposure spanning payments, credit, and cryptocurrency. PayPal (Europe) is supervised as a Luxembourg credit institution by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier and is additionally subject to ECB oversight under the PISA framework; if PayPal (Europe)'s activities exceed certain thresholds, the ECB could assume direct supervisory authority, potentially increasing compliance costs. In the UK, PayPal U.K. Limited is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority as an electronic money institution and consumer credit firm. The recently enacted GENIUS Act subjects the company to new US stablecoin obligations related to PayPal USD (PYUSD), adding a layer of cryptocurrency-specific regulation that remains in the implementation phase.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PayPal Plans to Separate Venmo Into Standalone Unit, CNBC Says - Bloomberg.com — Bloomberg.com positive
- NEWS PayPal reorganizes into three units, makes leadership changes (PYPL:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS PayPal stock jumps as Venmo becomes standalone business unit - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting PayPal Holdings Stock Will Climb or Sink? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS PayPal Has Fallen 44% From Its Peak. Here’s What a New CEO’s Transformation Plan Could Mean for PYPL Stock - TIKR.com — TIKR.com negative
Generated 2026-07-26T11:02:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-30Item 5.02MEDIUMPayPal announced on April 29, 2026 that Michelle Gill (EVP, GM Small Business and Financial Services) and Diego Scotti (EVP, GM Consumer Group) will both cease their roles effective June 2, 2026. Gill separation agreement provides termination-without-cause severance. No reason cited for departures.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOWDiego Scotti separation agreement formalized May 20, 2026, providing termination-without-cause severance. Stockholders approved the 2026 Equity Incentive Award Plan (39.1M shares authorized, replacing 2015 Plan) at the May 19, 2026 Annual Meeting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOWAlyssa H. Henry (former CEO of Block Inc.) appointed to Board effective March 25, 2026, filling vacancy from Board size increase from 11 to 12, and added to Compensation and Risk & Compliance Committees. Gail J. McGovern announced retirement from Board at 2026 Annual Meeting.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $50.37. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $56.02. Engine's entry $50.37 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $56.52 (+0.9%), stop $46.84 (−19.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $56.52 (-13.7% upside). Target $56.52 (+0.9%), stop $46.84 (−19.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $46.84.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
PayPal Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
51 analysts cover PYPL with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $53.
What does PayPal Holdings, Inc. do?PayPal operates a two-sided global payment network that connected 439 million active accounts in approximately 200...
PayPal operates a two-sided global payment network that connected 439 million active accounts in approximately 200 markets to process $1.79 trillion in total payment volume across 25.4 billion transactions in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from transaction fees charged to merchants, with additional income from currency conversion, instant transfer fees, credit products, and cryptocurrency services under the PayPal and Venmo brands.