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PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.Hold5.6·$43.63+2.68%
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PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Weak growth.

PayPal operates a global two-sided digital payments network with 439 million active accounts across approximately 200 markets, processing $1.79 trillion in total payment volume in 2025 through PayPal and Venmo consumer and merchant solutions. Revenue is primarily... Read more

$43.63+8.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#23 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield10.89%
IncomeYield1.32%Payout5.25%sustainable
Stop $41.13Target $47.42(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$51.54+18.1%33 analysts
$47.42our TP
$43.63price
$51.54mean
$32
$147

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About PayPal Holdings, Inc.

About PayPal Holdings, Inc.

PayPal processed $1.79 trillion in total payment volume across 25.4 billion transactions in 2025, connecting 439 million active accounts in approximately 200 markets on a two-sided network serving both consumers and merchants. Revenue is earned primarily through per-transaction fees; research and development expense totaled $1.5 billion in both 2025 and 2024. The company's US subsidiary holds money transmitter licenses in each state requiring them, plus licenses in the District of Columbia and certain territories.

PayPal earns merchant-side revenue from branded checkout fees (PayPal and Venmo), unbranded payment processing, and BNPL solutions embedded at checkout. Consumer-side revenue includes foreign currency conversion fees, instant transfer fees, cryptocurrency buy/sell revenue, and interest and fees from credit products. The PayPal Working Capital and PayPal Business Loan programs charge fixed fees for merchant financing; in the US, these programs operate under agreements with an independent chartered financial institution. European customers are served through PayPal (Europe) S.à.r.l. et Cie, S.C.A., a Luxembourg-licensed credit institution, while most non-US, non-EEA customers transact through PayPal Pte. Ltd. in Singapore, which holds a Major Payment Institution license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore issued in July 2023. The company's two-sided data position—visibility into both buyer and seller transaction flows—informs its fraud detection, personalization, and risk management offerings, which in turn support merchant conversion rates.

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PayPal faces multi-jurisdictional regulatory exposure spanning payments, credit, and cryptocurrency. PayPal (Europe) is supervised as a Luxembourg credit institution by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier and is additionally subject to ECB oversight under the PISA framework; if PayPal (Europe)'s activities exceed certain thresholds, the ECB could assume direct supervisory authority, potentially increasing compliance costs. In the UK, PayPal U.K. Limited is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority as an electronic money institution and consumer credit firm. The recently enacted GENIUS Act subjects the company to new US stablecoin obligations related to PayPal USD (PYUSD), adding a layer of cryptocurrency-specific regulation that remains in the implementation phase.

See also: Financial Services · Credit Services

From PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 47%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.6%
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.0
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$37.5B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn15.0%
ROE25.1%
Rev Growth7.2%
Beta1.34
Dividend1.32%
Rating analysts52

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV39%normal
Max Pain$135+209.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    EVP Michelle Gill (GM Small Business & Financial Services) and EVP Diego Scotti (GM Consumer Group) both departing effective June 2, 2026. Gill entering separation agreement with severance under the Executive Change in Control and Severance Plan. No successors named for either role.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Alyssa Henry (former CEO of Block Inc.) appointed to the Board effective March 25, 2026, filling a vacancy created by increasing Board size from 11 to 12. Gail McGovern informed the Company she will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine board change.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.8
Revenue Growth
4.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.1
Bollinger
3.9
Support Resistance
3.9
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.20Resistance $45.83

Price Targets

$41
$47
A.Upside+8.7%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PYPL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $47.42 (+8.7%), stop $41.13 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PYPL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.42 (+8.6% upside). Target $47.42 (+8.7%), stop $41.13 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $41.13.

What are the risks of investing in PYPL?

Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PYPL overvalued or undervalued?

PayPal Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PYPL?

52 analysts cover PYPL with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $52.

What does PayPal Holdings, Inc. do?PayPal operates a global two-sided digital payments network with 439 million active accounts across approximately 200...

PayPal operates a global two-sided digital payments network with 439 million active accounts across approximately 200 markets, processing $1.79 trillion in total payment volume in 2025 through PayPal and Venmo consumer and merchant solutions. Revenue is primarily transaction-fee-based; the company also earns from consumer credit, currency conversion, crypto transactions, and value-added services.

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