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Capital One Financial Corporati (COF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $190.71: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Capital One is the largest U.S. credit card issuer by outstanding balance after acquiring Discover in May 2025, and one of the largest U.S. banks by deposits, operating credit cards, auto loans, banking services, and the Global Payment Network (Discover Network, PULSE, Diners... Read more

$190.71+21.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#23 of 28 Credit Services
Stop $179.33Target $230.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$255.81+34.1%21 analysts
$230.23our TP
$190.71price
$255.81mean
$310

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $190.71: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.2% YoY), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.13% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.9
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$121.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE3.3%
Rev Growth46.3%
Beta1.14
Dividend1.68%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$115-39.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Roe
1.1
Net Margin
4.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Operating Margin
10.0
No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $177.72Resistance $210.84

Price Targets

$179
$230
A.Upside+20.7%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.2% YoY), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.13% of cap)
! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $190.71: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.33; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $179.33. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $230.23 (+21.0% upside). Prior stop was $179.33. Stop-loss: $179.33.

What are the risks of investing in COF?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.2% YoY), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.13% of cap).

Is COF overvalued or undervalued?

Capital One Financial Corporati trades at a P/E of 58.9 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COF?

28 analysts cover COF with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $256.

What does Capital One Financial Corporati do?Capital One is the largest U.S. credit card issuer by outstanding balance after acquiring Discover in May 2025, and one...

Capital One is the largest U.S. credit card issuer by outstanding balance after acquiring Discover in May 2025, and one of the largest U.S. banks by deposits, operating credit cards, auto loans, banking services, and the Global Payment Network (Discover Network, PULSE, Diners Club). Serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafes, and call centers.

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