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Capital One Financial Corporati (COF) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.05: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Capital One is the largest US credit card issuer by outstanding balance, operating through Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking segments plus the acquired Global Payment Network (Discover, PULSE, Diners Club) following its $51.8B Discover acquisition closed May... Read more

$182.05+26.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#22 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.71%(5y avg 1.63%)Payout86.12%at-risk
Stop $175.11Target $229.67(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$255.19+40.2%21 analysts
$229.67our TP
$182.05price
$255.19mean
$310

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.05: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Capital One Financial Corporati

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-30.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -7.1%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)57.4
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$116.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE3.3%
Rev Growth46.3%
Beta1.05
Dividend1.71%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.02bearish
IV41%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.4
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $180.53Resistance $204.89

Price Targets

$175
$230
A.Upside+26.2%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-30.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -7.1%)
! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.05: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 5.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $175.11. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $229.67 (+26.2% upside). Prior stop was $175.11. Stop-loss: $175.11.

What are the risks of investing in COF?

Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-30.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -7.1%).

Is COF overvalued or undervalued?

Capital One Financial Corporati trades at a P/E of 57.4 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COF?

28 analysts cover COF with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $255.

What does Capital One Financial Corporati do?Capital One is the largest US credit card issuer by outstanding balance, operating through Credit Card, Consumer...

Capital One is the largest US credit card issuer by outstanding balance, operating through Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking segments plus the acquired Global Payment Network (Discover, PULSE, Diners Club) following its $51.8B Discover acquisition closed May 2025. Revenue is driven by net interest income on credit and auto loans, interchange, and service fees across a nationwide banking and payments network.

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