The business has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise exceeding 10% and approximately 26% revenue growth year-over-year, demonstrating consistent execution; however, free cash flow is converting at only 54% of reported net income and the stock has less than 3% headroom to its resistance target at a risk/reward of 0.41-to-1, making the case stronger for watching than for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Leverage At Entry Constraint→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Execution→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $209.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
FirstCash Holdings operates 3,330 pawn stores across the U.S. (1,207), Latin America (1,837), and U.K. (286 stores added via the August 2025 H&T acquisition), the largest operator of large format, full-service pawn stores in those markets. Revenue splits across pawn loan fees... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $209.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About FirstCash Holdings, Inc.
About FirstCash Holdings, Inc.
Pawn loan fees generated 46% of FirstCash Holdings' consolidated net revenue in 2025, with merchandise sales gross profit contributing 39% and American First Finance (AFF) retail POS payment solutions adding 15%, across a 3,330-store network spanning 29 U.S. states, 32 Mexican states, and the U.K. The August 2025 acquisition of H&T—the U.K.'s largest pawnbroker with 286 stores—established a new U.K. reporting segment, bringing total store count to 3,330 as of December 31, 2025.
FirstCash earns pawn loan fees on non-recourse collateralized loans, with average loan amounts of $312 in the U.S., $112 in Latin America, and $825 in the U.K. per transaction at December 31, 2025. Forfeited collateral converts directly into merchandise inventory, linking lending volume to retail supply; pawn loan balances typically grow in the third and fourth quarters, with retail sales peaking in Q4 from holiday shopping. The AFF segment facilitates lease-to-own products (43% of 2025 gross transaction volume), bank-originated installment loans (45%), and retail installment sales agreements (12%) through a network of merchant partners, using a proprietary decisioning platform that evaluates applicants using data beyond traditional credit scores. The 10-K notes the pawn industry in the U.S. has an estimated 12,000 to 14,000 total pawnshops and 8,000 to 9,000 in Mexico—a fragmented market where FirstCash is the largest public or private operator of large format stores.
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Mexico hosts 1,732 of the 1,837 Latin America stores and represents FirstCash's largest single-country operation outside the U.S., subject to currency and regulatory risk. The 10-K discloses that fluctuations in currency exchange rates in most Latin American markets may cause financial results to change significantly, and notes that the Mexican government operates competing pawnshops through government-sponsored foundations—with the risk that regulatory or administrative actions could harm competitive positioning in Mexico. In the U.K., federal regulations mandate a six-month pawn loan term plus a two-month grace period, a structural difference from U.S. and Latin America terms that affects capital management for the newly integrated H&T stores.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From FirstCash Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-29Recent Developments — FirstCash Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS What is driving FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) stock | Q4 2025: EPS Beats Forecasts - Upside Surprise - Xã Thanh Hà — Xã Thanh Hà positive
- NEWS What is driving FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) stock | Q4 2025: EPS Beats Forecasts - Upside Surprise - Cổng thông tin điện t — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai positive
- NEWS Is FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) stock testing breakout levels | Q4 2025: Profit Exceeds Views - Community Watchlist - Xã Vĩ — Xã Vĩnh Công neutral
- NEWS A Look At FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) Valuation After $600 Million Notes Offering And Strong Quarterly Earnings - simplywa — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Are you looking for a top momentum pick? Why FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) is a great choice - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-06-29T23:53:57Z.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $209.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $198.85. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $227.84 (+8.6% upside). Prior stop was $198.85. Stop-loss: $198.85.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum.
FirstCash Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.6 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover FCFS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $239.
What does FirstCash Holdings, Inc. do?FirstCash Holdings operates 3,330 pawn stores across the U.S. (1,207), Latin America (1,837), and U.K. (286 stores...
FirstCash Holdings operates 3,330 pawn stores across the U.S. (1,207), Latin America (1,837), and U.K. (286 stores added via the August 2025 H&T acquisition), the largest operator of large format, full-service pawn stores in those markets. Revenue splits across pawn loan fees (46% of 2025 net revenue), merchandise sales gross profit (39%), and AFF retail POS payment solutions (15%), serving unbanked and credit-constrained consumers.