The business has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise exceeding 10% and approximately 26% revenue growth year-over-year, demonstrating consistent execution; however, free cash flow is converting at only 54% of reported net income and the stock has less than 3% headroom to its resistance target at a risk/reward of 0.41-to-1, making the case stronger for watching than for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory↓Deteriorating
- Leverage At Entry Constraint↓Deteriorating
- Consistent Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 9, 2026
FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Wait for pullback to $167.09. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $175.27. Engine's entry $167.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
FirstCash Holdings operates 3,330 pawn stores across the U.S. (1,207), Latin America (1,837), and U.K. (286 stores added via the August 2025 H&T acquisition), the largest operator of large format, full-service pawn stores in those markets. Revenue splits across pawn loan fees... Read more
Wait for pullback to $167.09. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $175.27. Engine's entry $167.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 21, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 99d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
About FirstCash Holdings, Inc.
About FirstCash Holdings, Inc.
Pawn loan fees generated 46% of FirstCash Holdings' consolidated net revenue in 2025, with merchandise sales gross profit contributing 39% and American First Finance (AFF) retail POS payment solutions adding 15%, across a 3,330-store network spanning 29 U.S. states, 32 Mexican states, and the U.K. The August 2025 acquisition of H&T—the U.K.'s largest pawnbroker with 286 stores—established a new U.K. reporting segment, bringing total store count to 3,330 as of December 31, 2025.
FirstCash earns pawn loan fees on non-recourse collateralized loans, with average loan amounts of $312 in the U.S., $112 in Latin America, and $825 in the U.K. per transaction at December 31, 2025. Forfeited collateral converts directly into merchandise inventory, linking lending volume to retail supply; pawn loan balances typically grow in the third and fourth quarters, with retail sales peaking in Q4 from holiday shopping. The AFF segment facilitates lease-to-own products (43% of 2025 gross transaction volume), bank-originated installment loans (45%), and retail installment sales agreements (12%) through a network of merchant partners, using a proprietary decisioning platform that evaluates applicants using data beyond traditional credit scores. The 10-K notes the pawn industry in the U.S. has an estimated 12,000 to 14,000 total pawnshops and 8,000 to 9,000 in Mexico—a fragmented market where FirstCash is the largest public or private operator of large format stores.
Show full overview
Mexico hosts 1,732 of the 1,837 Latin America stores and represents FirstCash's largest single-country operation outside the U.S., subject to currency and regulatory risk. The 10-K discloses that fluctuations in currency exchange rates in most Latin American markets may cause financial results to change significantly, and notes that the Mexican government operates competing pawnshops through government-sponsored foundations—with the risk that regulatory or administrative actions could harm competitive positioning in Mexico. In the U.K., federal regulations mandate a six-month pawn loan term plus a two-month grace period, a structural difference from U.S. and Latin America terms that affects capital management for the newly integrated H&T stores.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From FirstCash Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-27Recent Developments — FirstCash Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS FirstCash Holdings, Inc. Announces Board Changes - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS FirstCash Holdings, Inc. Announces CEO Changes, Effective January 1, 2027 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS FirstCash Holdings Announces Planned CEO Transition and Board Leadership Changes - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS REG - FirstCash Holdings Ramsdens Holdings - Update on Letter of Intent - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS What is driving FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) stock | Q4 2025: EPS Beats Forecasts - Upside Surprise - Xã Thanh Hà — Xã Thanh Hà positive
Generated 2026-10-27T11:33:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $167.09. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $175.27. Engine's entry $167.09 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 21, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $210.38 (+20.0%), stop $155.39 (−12.8%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $210.38 (+20.0% upside). Target $210.38 (+20.0%), stop $155.39 (−12.8%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $155.39.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
FirstCash Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
10 analysts cover FCFS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $248.
What does FirstCash Holdings, Inc. do?FirstCash Holdings operates 3,330 pawn stores across the U.S. (1,207), Latin America (1,837), and U.K. (286 stores...
FirstCash Holdings operates 3,330 pawn stores across the U.S. (1,207), Latin America (1,837), and U.K. (286 stores added via the August 2025 H&T acquisition), the largest operator of large format, full-service pawn stores in those markets. Revenue splits across pawn loan fees (46% of 2025 net revenue), merchandise sales gross profit (39%), and AFF retail POS payment solutions (15%), serving unbanked and credit-constrained consumers.