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FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Wait for pullback to $196.80. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $219.13. Engine's entry $196.80 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away).

FirstCash Holdings is the leading pawn operator with 3,300+ stores across the US (29 states), Latin America (Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia), and the UK (H&T acquired August 2025). Revenue comes from pawn loan fees, retail merchandise sales of collateral-forfeited... Read more

$219.13+13.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#10 of 28 Credit Services
Entry $196.80(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $182.66Target $222.71(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$241.40+10.2%5 analysts
$222.71our TP
$219.13price
$241.40mean
$252

Wait for pullback to $196.80. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $219.13. Engine's entry $196.80 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.2Qual6.2Grw8.4Mom4.9Sent6.9Ins3.8Peer4.7Tech4.1Risk6.66.1OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.75)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.7% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.0
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$9.5B
EV/EBITDA16.3
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth25.7%
Beta0.47
Dividend0.78%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$145-33.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicLatin America
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's financial position and results of operations may fluctuate significantly due to fluctuations in currency exchange rates in most Latin American markets'
  • MEDIUMCommoditygold and precious metals
    10-K Item 1A: 'Declines in commodity market prices of gold, other precious metals and diamonds could negatively affect the Company's profits'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $188.05Resistance $227.26

Price Targets

$183
$197
$223
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-0.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCFS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $196.80. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $219.13. Engine's entry $196.80 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $222.71 (+1.6%), stop $182.66 (−20.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FCFS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $222.71 (+13.2% upside). Target $222.71 (+1.6%), stop $182.66 (−20.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $182.66.

What are the risks of investing in FCFS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is FCFS overvalued or undervalued?

FirstCash Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.0 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FCFS?

13 analysts cover FCFS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $241.

What does FirstCash Holdings, Inc. do?FirstCash Holdings is the leading pawn operator with 3,300+ stores across the US (29 states), Latin America (Mexico,...

FirstCash Holdings is the leading pawn operator with 3,300+ stores across the US (29 states), Latin America (Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia), and the UK (H&T acquired August 2025). Revenue comes from pawn loan fees, retail merchandise sales of collateral-forfeited goods, and retail POS payment solutions (AFF).

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