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Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Negative momentum.

Ally Financial is a digital bank and automotive finance company with $196B in assets, operating the nation's largest all-digital bank alongside an automotive financing and insurance business serving dealer networks. Revenue comes from net interest income on auto loans, leases,... Read more

$40.85+19.0% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#7 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.86%(5y avg 3.18%)Payout29.13%sustainable
Stop $39.50Target $48.61(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$54.01+32.2%17 analysts
$48.61our TP
$40.85price
$54.01mean
$70

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ally Financial Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$12.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn18.2%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth19.7%
Beta1.11
Dividend2.86%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.88bearish
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerGM and Stellantis dealers
    10-K Item 1A: 'GM and Stellantis dealers and their retail customers continue to constitute a significant portion of our customer base, which creates concentration risk for us.'
  • LOWloan_portfoliobrokered deposits4.4%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our brokered deposits totaled $6.7 billion at December 31, 2025, which represented 4.4% of total deposit liabilities.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    At the May 6, 2026 Annual Meeting, shareholders approved the Ally Financial Inc. Incentive Compensation Omnibus Plan (2026 ICP), authorizing 25,217,502 shares. Routine compensatory plan approval; no officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.3
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.72Resistance $46.04

Price Targets

$40
$49
A.Upside+19.0%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALLY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $48.61 (+19.0%), stop $39.50 (−3.4%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.61 (+19.0% upside). Target $48.61 (+19.0%), stop $39.50 (−3.4%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $39.50.

What are the risks of investing in ALLY?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Negative momentum.

Is ALLY overvalued or undervalued?

Ally Financial Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ALLY?

24 analysts cover ALLY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Ally Financial Inc. do?Ally Financial is a digital bank and automotive finance company with $196B in assets, operating the nation's largest...

Ally Financial is a digital bank and automotive finance company with $196B in assets, operating the nation's largest all-digital bank alongside an automotive financing and insurance business serving dealer networks. Revenue comes from net interest income on auto loans, leases, and deposits; deposits represent 87% of liability-based funding.

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