Performance Food Group converts income to free cash flow at 224% and carries strong earnings growth potential, but quality scores fall below minimum thresholds at 3.6 out of 10, the stock has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and prices are at analyst resistance with no upside remaining.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor↓Deteriorating
- Exceptional Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Miss Pattern 3 Of 4↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $98.50: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.80; Below-average business quality.
Performance Food Group markets and distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products across North America through 155 distribution centers organized into three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty. The company serves over 300,000 customer locations —... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $98.50: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Performance Food Group Company
About Performance Food Group Company
Performance Food Group Company distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products across North America through three segments — Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty — operating 155 distribution centers that reach over 300,000 customer locations. The Foodservice segment runs 89 of those centers, Convenience operates 39 across the U.S. and Canada, and Specialty runs 27. Approximately 43,000 employees support the network, with 99% working full-time.
Performance Food Group earns revenue primarily through markup-based pricing — either a percentage over product cost or a fixed markup per unit or pound — set either by customer contract or at the time of order, with roughly three-and-a-half-week average inventory turns limiting exposure to cost swings. Independent customers such as family-dining, pizza, and fast-casual restaurants generate higher gross profit per case than chain customers because they use more of the company's higher-margin proprietary Performance Brands and value-added services like menu development and procurement support; chain customers, in turn, deliver larger order volumes at lower margins. The company also depends on promotional allowances paid by suppliers — a standard industry practice that represents a significant source of distributor profitability — and manages diesel fuel cost exposure through fuel surcharges and costless collar hedges covering a portion of expected fuel usage. Competing against national and regional distributors including US Foods, the company has no long-term exclusive service agreements with most customers, who can switch to competitors offering lower prices or superior service.
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One lens the filing supports directly: a significant portion of sales volume depends on distributing cigarettes and other tobacco products, a category Performance Food Group itself describes as declining due to regulation, taxation, and alternative nicotine products — a structural headwind not necessarily offset by growth elsewhere. Insurance expense rose $28.0 million in fiscal 2025 versus fiscal 2024, driven primarily by vehicle liability and workers' compensation, as carriers raise premiums across the distribution industry. On August 7, 2025, US Foods Holding Corp.'s CEO publicly signaled interest in exploring a potential business combination with the company — a disclosure framed as a risk to management's strategic focus rather than a settled transaction.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
From Performance Food Group Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Performance Food Group Company
Latest news
- NEWS Centers For Disease Control And Prevention: Investigating A Multistate Outbreak Of E. Coli And Salmonella Infections Lin — benzinga Aug 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS $100 Invested In Performance Food Group 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — benzinga Aug 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Dan Loeb Exits Nvidia, Meta And Broadcom — Bets Big On Warner Bros. Discovery — benzinga Aug 17, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on Performance Food Group, Lowers Price Target to $130 — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Buy on Performance Food Group, Raises Price Target to $144 — benzinga Aug 13, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductcigarettes and tobacco products10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our sales volume is dependent upon the distribution of cigarettes and other tobacco products, sales of which are generally declining.'
- LOWhedge_coveragediesel fuel gallons hedged via collars15%10-K Item 1: 'diesel fuel surcharges to our customers and through the use of costless collars ... collars in place for approximately 15% of the gallons'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $98.50: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $95.15. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $107.55 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $95.15. Stop-loss: $95.15.
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
Performance Food Group Company trades at a P/E of 43.3 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover PFGC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $124.
What does Performance Food Group Company do?Performance Food Group markets and distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products across North America...
Performance Food Group markets and distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products across North America through 155 distribution centers organized into three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty. The company serves over 300,000 customer locations — including independent and chain restaurants, schools, and hospitals — with about 43,000 employees, earning revenue through markup-based pricing on distributed volume.