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PFGCPerformance Food Group CompanySell5.7·$107.25+2.65%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Performance Food Group converts income to free cash flow at 224% and carries strong earnings growth potential, but quality scores fall below minimum thresholds at 3.6 out of 10, the stock has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and prices are at analyst resistance with no upside remaining.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below FloorStable
  • Exceptional Fcf ConversionImproving
  • Earnings Miss Pattern 3 Of 4Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.25: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Performance Food Group distributes 250,000+ food products across three segments—Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty—from 155 distribution centers to 300,000+ customer locations in North America. Revenue comes from product markups, with independent restaurant customers... Read more

$107.250.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#1 of 6 Food Distribution
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.27%
Stop $100.41Target $107.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$123.31+15.0%13 analysts
$107.28our TP
$107.25price
$123.31mean
$72
$143

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.25: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15

Recent Developments — Performance Food Group Company

Generated 2026-08-15T10:47:37Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(3) detected in news
Risks
Target reached (0.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.9
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$16.4B
EV/EBITDA14.1
Profit Mgn0.5%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth33.2%
Beta0.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductcigarettes and other tobacco products
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our sales volume depends upon the distribution of cigarettes and other tobacco products'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.3
Erm
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.3
Operating Margin
0.7
Roa
2.0
Roe
2.6
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 195% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $103.27Resistance $117.47

Price Targets

$100
$107
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFGC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.25: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $100.41. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PFGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $107.28 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $100.41. Stop-loss: $100.41.

What are the risks of investing in PFGC?

Target reached (0.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is PFGC overvalued or undervalued?

Performance Food Group Company trades at a P/E of 46.9 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PFGC?

21 analysts cover PFGC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $123.

What does Performance Food Group Company do?Performance Food Group distributes 250,000+ food products across three segments—Foodservice, Convenience, and...

Performance Food Group distributes 250,000+ food products across three segments—Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty—from 155 distribution centers to 300,000+ customer locations in North America. Revenue comes from product markups, with independent restaurant customers generating higher margins than chain customers; approximately 43,000 employees serve food-away-from-home and convenience retail channels.

Related stocks: USFD (US Foods Holding Corp.) · SYY (Sysco Corporation) · ANDE (The Andersons, Inc.) · UNFI (United Natural Foods, Inc.)
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