PACCAR has formed a golden cross breakout with the stock above all moving averages and a bullish MACD, but has surpassed analyst targets with negative upside of 5.9%, revenue is declining 9% year over year, and two consecutive earnings misses signal fundamental weakness in heavy truck demand.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Revenue Decline→Stable
- Golden Cross Breakout Momentum→Stable
- Above Target Valuation Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — PACCAR Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PCAR (PACCAR Inc.) posts narrow Q4 2025 EPS miss, shares rise 1.51 percent as investors shrug off the small shortfall. - — Xã Châu Thành negative
- NEWS How The PACCAR (PCAR) Investment Story Is Evolving With New Valuation Targets And Technology Risks - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS PACCAR Inc. (NASDAQ:PCAR) Given Consensus Rating of "Hold" by Analysts - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Has $46.06 Million Stock Position in PACCAR Inc. $PCAR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUMNamed Executive Officer | Non-Equity Incentive Plan Compensation LTIP Cash Award | Total Compensation R. P. Feight | $6,834,144 | $19,453,009 H. C. Schippers | $1,330,337 | $5,037,791 B. J. Poplawski | $259,455 | $2,164,812 K. D. Baney | $596,624 | $3,761,067 C. M.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -8.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $113.32. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $120.57 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $113.32. Stop-loss: $113.32.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.
PACCAR Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.4 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover PCAR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $127.
What does PACCAR Inc. do?The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in...
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.