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Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $870.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Originally organized as Caterpillar Tractor Co. in 1925 in the State of California, our company was reorganized as Caterpillar Inc. in 1986 in the State of Delaware. As used herein, the term "Caterpillar," "we," "us," "our" or "the company" refers to Caterpillar Inc. and its... Read more

$870.00+6.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 12 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield0.95%
IncomeYield0.70%(5y avg 1.74%)Payout29.58%sustainable
Stop $799.94Target $912.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$913.29+5.0%26 analysts
$912.72our TP
$870.00price
$913.29mean
$575
$1165

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $870.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Caterpillar, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.9
P/E (Fwd)28.9
Mkt Cap$396.2B
EV/EBITDA29.9
Profit Mgn13.3%
ROE51.3%
Rev Growth22.2%
Beta1.63
Dividend0.70%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.37bearish
IV53%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.** _Appointment of New Chief Financial Officer_ On April 8, 2026, Caterpillar Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.2
Peg Ratio
4.4
Ps
6.5
Forward P/E: 28.9xPEG: 2.05
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $805.00Resistance $931.35

Price Targets

$800
$913
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $870.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $799.94. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the CAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $912.72 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $799.94. Stop-loss: $799.94.

What are the risks of investing in CAT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is CAT overvalued or undervalued?

Caterpillar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.9 (forward 28.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAT?

34 analysts cover CAT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $913.

What does Caterpillar, Inc. do?Originally organized as Caterpillar Tractor Co. in 1925 in the State of California, our company was reorganized as...

Originally organized as Caterpillar Tractor Co. in 1925 in the State of California, our company was reorganized as Caterpillar Inc. in 1986 in the State of Delaware. As used herein, the term "Caterpillar," "we," "us," "our" or "the company" refers to Caterpillar Inc. and its subsidiaries unless designated or identified otherwise.

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