PACCAR has formed a golden cross breakout with the stock above all moving averages and a bullish MACD, but has surpassed analyst targets with negative upside of 5.9%, revenue is declining 9% year over year, and two consecutive earnings misses signal fundamental weakness in heavy truck demand.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Revenue Decline→Stable
- Golden Cross Breakout Momentum→Stable
- Above Target Valuation Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $127.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $127.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — PACCAR Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PCAR (PACCAR Inc.) posts narrow Q4 2025 EPS miss, shares rise 1.51 percent as investors shrug off the small shortfall. - — Xã Châu Thành negative
- NEWS How The PACCAR (PCAR) Investment Story Is Evolving With New Valuation Targets And Technology Risks - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS PACCAR Inc. (NASDAQ:PCAR) Given Consensus Rating of "Hold" by Analysts - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Has $46.06 Million Stock Position in PACCAR Inc. $PCAR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T11:41:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUMNamed Executive Officer | Non-Equity Incentive Plan Compensation LTIP Cash Award | Total Compensation R. P. Feight | $6,834,144 | $19,453,009 H. C. Schippers | $1,330,337 | $5,037,791 B. J. Poplawski | $259,455 | $2,164,812 K. D. Baney | $596,624 | $3,761,067 C. M.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -8.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $127.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $123.53 (-3.1%), stop $119.11 (−7.0%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $123.53 (-1.9% upside). Target $123.53 (-3.1%), stop $119.11 (−7.0%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $119.11.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.
PACCAR Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.4 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
26 analysts cover PCAR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $127.
What does PACCAR Inc. do?The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in...
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.