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PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $111.68 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.

$111.68+1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#8 of 12 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.53%
IncomeYield1.27%(5y avg 1.29%)Payout28.09%sustainable
Stop $106.68Target $113.51(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$126.12+12.9%16 analysts
$113.51our TP
$111.68price
$126.12mean
$140

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $111.68 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — PACCAR Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Named Executive Officer | Non-Equity Incentive Plan Compensation LTIP Cash Award | Total Compensation R. P. Feight | $6,834,144 | $19,453,009 H. C. Schippers | $1,330,337 | $5,037,791 B. J. Poplawski | $259,455 | $2,164,812 K. D. Baney | $596,624 | $3,761,067 C. M.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.8
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$58.8B
EV/EBITDA20.2
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth-8.9%
Beta1.03
Dividend1.27%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV37%normal
Max Pain$79-29.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Named Executive Officer | Non-Equity Incentive Plan Compensation LTIP Cash Award | Total Compensation R. P. Feight | $6,834,144 | $19,453,009 H. C. Schippers | $1,330,337 | $5,037,791 B. J. Poplawski | $259,455 | $2,164,812 K. D. Baney | $596,624 | $3,761,067 C. M.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -8.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.3
Earnings Growth
5.9
Declining revenue: -9%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.9
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 127.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $109.50Resistance $128.91

Price Targets

$107
$114
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.6% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $111.68 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $106.68. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the PCAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $113.51 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $106.68. Stop-loss: $106.68.

What are the risks of investing in PCAR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is PCAR overvalued or undervalued?

PACCAR Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PCAR?

27 analysts cover PCAR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $126.

What does PACCAR Inc. do?The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in...

The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.

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