PACCAR has formed a golden cross breakout with the stock above all moving averages and a bullish MACD, but has surpassed analyst targets with negative upside of 5.9%, revenue is declining 9% year over year, and two consecutive earnings misses signal fundamental weakness in heavy truck demand.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Revenue Decline→Stable
- Golden Cross Breakout Momentum↑Improving
- Above Target Valuation Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $102.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $102.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 30, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — PACCAR Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) Stock Lags Despite Strong Q3 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) Stock Shrugs Off Strong Q3 Earnings Momentum - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS PACCAR ($PCAR) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) reports sales below analyst estimates in Q3 2026 earnings - StockStory — StockStory Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) reports sales below analyst estimates in Q3 2026 earnings - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $102.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 30, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $97.07. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $114.75 (+12.5% upside). Prior stop was $97.07. Stop-loss: $97.07.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
PACCAR Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts rate PCAR, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $128.
What does PACCAR Inc. do?The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in...
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.