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PACGrupo Aeroportuario Del PacificSell5.0·$216.28+0.39%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico delivers top-tier operating metrics with a 38% return on equity, 30% net margins, and strong price momentum, but the stock is already above its analyst price target, free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, and two consecutive earnings misses raise execution concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Roe And MarginsImproving
  • Strong Price MomentumDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings Miss RiskDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific (PAC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellValueQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airports & Air Services

Sell if holding. At $216.28, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and manages airports in Mexico and Jamaica. The company operates twelve international airports in the Pacific and Central region of Mexico; and two international airports in... Read more

$216.28+7.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#4 of 5 Airports & Air Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield53.60%
IncomeYield4.09%(5y avg 4.05%)Payout45.86%sustainable
Stop $205.65Target $231.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$266.49+23.2%7 analysts
$231.84our TP
$216.28price
$266.49mean
$312

Sell if holding. At $216.28, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 9, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Oct 19, 202686d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.2%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)20.0
Mkt Cap$12.9B
EV/EBITDA85.0
Profit Mgn30.8%
ROE28.0%
Rev Growth3.7%
Beta0.24
Dividend4.09%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 9, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
5.5

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.7
Revenue Growth
3.4
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
9 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $212.01Resistance $258.15

Price Targets

$206
$232
A.Upside+7.2%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-19 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $216.28, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 9, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $205.65. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $231.84 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $205.65. Stop-loss: $205.65.

What are the risks of investing in PAC?

Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PAC overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAC?

18 analysts cover PAC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $266.

What does Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific do?Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and manages...

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and manages airports in Mexico and Jamaica. The company operates twelve international airports in the Pacific and Central region of Mexico; and two international airports in Jamaica. It also offers aeronautical services, such as passenger, aircraft landing, parking charges, leasing of space to these airlines, airport security and passenger walkway, and airport bus; complementary services, including baggage handling, catering, aircraft maintenance and repair, and fuel; cargo handling; and ground transportation services. In addition, the company provides non-aeronautical services, such as redesigning and modernizing terminal spaces and developing new commercial projects; telephone and internet services; and ground handling services under the brand Primesky, as well as advertising services. Further, it engages in commercial activities comprising leasing space in terminals to airlines and other service providers; retail stores, such as souvenir and gift shops, fashion and footwear stores, pharmacies, jewelry, electronics, cosmetics, and others; and various food and beverage services, as well as leasing space and designated parking areas to car rental service companies, including service counters, reservation booths, and vehicle parking facilities; and leasing space to timeshare developers, financial service providers, communications, and to operators of duty-free stores. Additionally, the company operates parking facilities; VIP lounges; convenience stores; and vending machines. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Guadalajara, Mexico.

Related stocks: CAAP (Corporacion America Airports SA) · OMAB (Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro ) · JOBY (Joby Aviation, Inc.) · ASR (Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste)
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