Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.07
- ▸Attractively valued
PAC · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific (PAC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico delivers top-tier operating metrics with a 38% return on equity, 30% net margins, and strong price momentum, but the stock is already above its analyst price target, free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, and two consecutive earnings misses raise execution concerns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico earns a return on equity of 38% and net margins of 30%, both in the top tier for the industrials sector, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency across its airport network. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins hold above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAirport concession operators' margins are partly determined by regulatory rate-setting bodies rather than management decisions; regulatory changes to airport fees could compress margins significantly without operational offset. | ||
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, RSI at 53, and a bullish MACD continuation setup, indicating positive price momentum supported by accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is already above analyst consensus targets; if earnings disappoint again after the 2 recent misses, momentum buyers will exit and the accumulation pattern could reverse quickly. | ||
Two consecutive earnings misses — a negative 32% surprise in February 2026 and a negative 0.7% miss in October 2025 — indicate execution variability that may signal structural issues with passenger volumes or currency-related revenue translation. Earnings | The company returns to an earnings beat in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with negative surprise no greater than 5%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter delivered a 24.4% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may be episodic rather than structural and could be driven by currency or timing factors. | ||
Free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, a red-flag level that suggests significant capital expenditure or working capital demands are consuming the majority of reported earnings, reducing actual cash available for distribution or debt repayment. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves above 50% within 4 reporting periods as airport expansion programs reach completion. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAirport operators in growth phases regularly convert low percentages of net income into free cash flow due to concession investment requirements; this is a known structural feature of airport expansion cycles, not an impairment signal. | ||
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico earns a return on equity of 38% and net margins of 30%, both in the top tier for the industrials sector, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency across its airport network.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins hold above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterAirport concession operators' margins are partly determined by regulatory rate-setting bodies rather than management decisions; regulatory changes to airport fees could compress margins significantly without operational offset.
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, RSI at 53, and a bullish MACD continuation setup, indicating positive price momentum supported by accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months.
CounterThe stock is already above analyst consensus targets; if earnings disappoint again after the 2 recent misses, momentum buyers will exit and the accumulation pattern could reverse quickly.
Two consecutive earnings misses — a negative 32% surprise in February 2026 and a negative 0.7% miss in October 2025 — indicate execution variability that may signal structural issues with passenger volumes or currency-related revenue translation.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to an earnings beat in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with negative surprise no greater than 5%.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter delivered a 24.4% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may be episodic rather than structural and could be driven by currency or timing factors.
Free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, a red-flag level that suggests significant capital expenditure or working capital demands are consuming the majority of reported earnings, reducing actual cash available for distribution or debt repayment.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves above 50% within 4 reporting periods as airport expansion programs reach completion.
CounterAirport operators in growth phases regularly convert low percentages of net income into free cash flow due to concession investment requirements; this is a known structural feature of airport expansion cycles, not an impairment signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.3 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 23 (fail)
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 0.7 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.6 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.85
Upside
+5.5%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.85 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.0, Value at 7.0, and Quality at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Momentum at 2.2, and Peer rank at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Roe And Margins
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume falls for 6 or more consecutive weeks.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Free Cash Flow Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion remains below 15% of net income for 3 consecutive reporting periods.