Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.07
PAC · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific (PAC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico earns a return on equity of 38% and net margins of 30%, both in the top tier for the industrials sector, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency across its airport network. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins hold above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterAirport concession operators' margins are partly determined by regulatory rate-setting bodies rather than management decisions; regulatory changes to airport fees could compress margins significantly without operational offset. | ||
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, RSI at 53, and a bullish MACD continuation setup, indicating positive price momentum supported by accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already above analyst consensus targets; if earnings disappoint again after the 2 recent misses, momentum buyers will exit and the accumulation pattern could reverse quickly. | ||
Two consecutive earnings misses — a negative 32% surprise in February 2026 and a negative 0.7% miss in October 2025 — indicate execution variability that may signal structural issues with passenger volumes or currency-related revenue translation. Earnings | The company returns to an earnings beat in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with negative surprise no greater than 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter delivered a 24.4% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may be episodic rather than structural and could be driven by currency or timing factors. | ||
Free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, a red-flag level that suggests significant capital expenditure or working capital demands are consuming the majority of reported earnings, reducing actual cash available for distribution or debt repayment. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves above 50% within 4 reporting periods as airport expansion programs reach completion. | →Stable |
| CounterAirport operators in growth phases regularly convert low percentages of net income into free cash flow due to concession investment requirements; this is a known structural feature of airport expansion cycles, not an impairment signal. | ||
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico earns a return on equity of 38% and net margins of 30%, both in the top tier for the industrials sector, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency across its airport network.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins hold above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterAirport concession operators' margins are partly determined by regulatory rate-setting bodies rather than management decisions; regulatory changes to airport fees could compress margins significantly without operational offset.
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, RSI at 53, and a bullish MACD continuation setup, indicating positive price momentum supported by accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for at least 3 consecutive months.
CounterThe stock is already above analyst consensus targets; if earnings disappoint again after the 2 recent misses, momentum buyers will exit and the accumulation pattern could reverse quickly.
Two consecutive earnings misses — a negative 32% surprise in February 2026 and a negative 0.7% miss in October 2025 — indicate execution variability that may signal structural issues with passenger volumes or currency-related revenue translation.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to an earnings beat in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with negative surprise no greater than 5%.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter delivered a 24.4% positive surprise, suggesting the miss pattern may be episodic rather than structural and could be driven by currency or timing factors.
Free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, a red-flag level that suggests significant capital expenditure or working capital demands are consuming the majority of reported earnings, reducing actual cash available for distribution or debt repayment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves above 50% within 4 reporting periods as airport expansion programs reach completion.
CounterAirport operators in growth phases regularly convert low percentages of net income into free cash flow due to concession investment requirements; this is a known structural feature of airport expansion cycles, not an impairment signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico delivers top-tier operating metrics with a 38% return on equity, 30% net margins, and strong price momentum, but the stock is already above its analyst price target, free cash flow converts at only 18% of net income, and two consecutive earnings misses raise execution concerns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 1.5 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 18% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 8 (fail)
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.7 |
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.8 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.37
Upside
-4.8%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.2, Value at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.6, Catalyst at 3.7, and Technical at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Roe And Margins
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume falls for 6 or more consecutive weeks.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Free Cash Flow Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion remains below 15% of net income for 3 consecutive reporting periods.