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Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airports & Air Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.05: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality.

Joby Aviation is developing a piloted, all-electric eVTOL air taxi aircraft for urban routes; targeting FAA type certification and initial commercial passenger service in 2026. No air taxi revenue yet; subsidiary Blade (acquired August 2025) operates a helicopter charter... Read more

$9.05+13.3% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#5 of 5 Airports & Air Services
Stop $8.41Target $10.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$11.79+30.2%9 analysts
$10.25our TP
$9.05price
$11.79mean
$6
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.05: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and news soft fda negative and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-18.7
Mkt Cap$8.6B
EV/EBITDA-10.5
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-80.1%
Rev Growth55965.5%
Beta2.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.45bearish
IV93%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Didier Papadapoulos, President of Aircraft OEM (Named Executive Officer), resigned effective July 3, 2026 to spend time with family after five years. No disagreement cited. No successor named; Papadapoulos to provide ongoing advisory services.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-06Item 4.01HIGH
    Deloitte & Touche LLP dismissed as independent registered public accounting firm effective March 3, 2026. No adverse opinions, disagreements, or reportable events in fiscal years 2025 and 2024. No replacement auditor named at time of filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Gross Margin
5.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -614% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Volatile — 6.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
1.1
Debt Equity
1.9
Put Call
3.6
Short Interest
3.7
News Risk
6.0
Days To Cover
6.9
High IV: 93%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.9
Support Resistance
4.2
Gap
5.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.9
Ma Position
4.0
Macd
7.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MEarnings in 5 days
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)NEWS SOFT FDA NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.86Resistance $9.89

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+13.3%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JOBY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.05: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $8.41. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JOBY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.25 (+13.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.41. Stop-loss: $8.41.

What are the risks of investing in JOBY?

Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is JOBY overvalued or undervalued?

Joby Aviation, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JOBY?

16 analysts cover JOBY with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Joby Aviation, Inc. do?Joby Aviation is developing a piloted, all-electric eVTOL air taxi aircraft for urban routes; targeting FAA type...

Joby Aviation is developing a piloted, all-electric eVTOL air taxi aircraft for urban routes; targeting FAA type certification and initial commercial passenger service in 2026. No air taxi revenue yet; subsidiary Blade (acquired August 2025) operates a helicopter charter brokerage. Manufacturing in Marina and San Carlos, California, with a high-rate production site planned in Dayton, Ohio.

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