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ONONOn Holding AGHold6.3·$35.82+2.81%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

On Holding's premium footwear brand demonstrates strong earnings momentum and wide-moat business quality, but near-term technical weakness from a confirmed downtrend warrants caution before adding new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Moat Quality ProfileStable
  • Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Analyst Upside SentimentStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic... Read more

$35.82+30.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.01%
Stop $33.57Target $46.55(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$51.72+44.4%27 analysts
$46.55our TP
$35.82price
$51.72mean
$24
$82

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.7
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$11.9B
EV/EBITDA24.4
Profit Mgn8.0%
ROE15.5%
Rev Growth14.5%
Beta2.12
DividendNone
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.51bullish
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume
7.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $34.61Resistance $39.23

Price Targets

$34
$47
A.Upside+30.0%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONON stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $46.55 (+30.0%), stop $33.57 (−6.7%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.55 (+30.0% upside). Target $46.55 (+30.0%), stop $33.57 (−6.7%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Stop-loss: $33.57.

What are the risks of investing in ONON?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ONON overvalued or undervalued?

On Holding AG trades at a P/E of 37.7 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ONON?

35 analysts cover ONON with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $52.

What does On Holding AG do?On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand...

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

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