Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.76
ONON · Why this verdict
Why On Holding (ONON) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
On Holding's premium footwear brand demonstrates strong earnings momentum and wide-moat business quality, but near-term technical weakness from a confirmed downtrend warrants caution before adding new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company carries a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting strong brand positioning and financial health in the competitive footwear market. Quality breakdown | Return on equity and gross margin indicators remain at current levels or improve over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPremium footwear brands face intense competition from established players with deeper distribution networks, which could erode moat over time. | ||
On Holding beat earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 40%, 18%, and 60% in recent periods, indicating strong operational execution. Earnings | Continued earnings beats above analyst estimates for the next 2 quarters with positive surprises above 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single large miss of -143% surprise last August shows earnings can be highly volatile and unpredictable. | ||
Analysts carry an average price target implying 36% upside from current levels, reflecting broad institutional conviction in the growth story. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst price targets rise above current consensus or analyst count covering the stock increases over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets can lag price action; a stock trading below its 200-day moving average often precedes negative target revisions. | ||
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down at 3.6% over the past 30 days, constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks near-term entry. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume accumulation via rising on-balance volume suggests institutional buyers may be absorbing shares quietly despite the price weakness. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.75 combined with a forward price-to-earnings of 17.8x suggests the market is underpricing growth relative to earnings power. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates increase by at least 10% over the next 12 months as revenue growth continues above 20% annually. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterPEG ratios are unreliable for high-growth brands where consensus estimates may overstate sustainable long-run growth rates. | ||
The company carries a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting strong brand positioning and financial health in the competitive footwear market.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity and gross margin indicators remain at current levels or improve over the next 12 months.
CounterPremium footwear brands face intense competition from established players with deeper distribution networks, which could erode moat over time.
On Holding beat earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 40%, 18%, and 60% in recent periods, indicating strong operational execution.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued earnings beats above analyst estimates for the next 2 quarters with positive surprises above 10%.
CounterA single large miss of -143% surprise last August shows earnings can be highly volatile and unpredictable.
Analysts carry an average price target implying 36% upside from current levels, reflecting broad institutional conviction in the growth story.
Tripped↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise above current consensus or analyst count covering the stock increases over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets can lag price action; a stock trading below its 200-day moving average often precedes negative target revisions.
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down at 3.6% over the past 30 days, constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks near-term entry.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 12 months.
CounterVolume accumulation via rising on-balance volume suggests institutional buyers may be absorbing shares quietly despite the price weakness.
A PEG ratio of 0.75 combined with a forward price-to-earnings of 17.8x suggests the market is underpricing growth relative to earnings power.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates increase by at least 10% over the next 12 months as revenue growth continues above 20% annually.
CounterPEG ratios are unreliable for high-growth brands where consensus estimates may overstate sustainable long-run growth rates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 6.4 |
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.5 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $55,353 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.4 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 2.9 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.22
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.06
Upside
+46.1%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.7) with weak momentum (2.0)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Quality at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of 4.06.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.06 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Moat Quality Profile
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in any reported period.
- P3Analyst Upside SentimentTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $40 (below current price of $38.69).
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Risk
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains below 0% for more than 60 days.
- P5Growth Peg ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 25x due to earnings estimate cuts.