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Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. At $38.20, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%).

Steven Madden designs and sources footwear, handbags, and apparel under Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Carvela, and other brands globally. Wholesale (66.1% of 2025 revenue) and DTC (33.4%) channels; U.S. accounted for ~66.2% of global sales, with no... Read more

$38.20+3.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-0.51%
IncomeYield2.17%(5y avg 2.12%)Payout79.25%
Stop $35.55Target $39.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$45.44+19.0%9 analysts
$39.54our TP
$38.20price
$45.44mean
$31
$52

Sell if holding. At $38.20, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Steven Madden, Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%)
Thin upside margin: 3.4%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.5
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth18.0%
Beta1.13
Dividend2.17%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C73.40bearish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierChina manufacturing56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 56.1% of our total purchases were manufactured in China'
  • MEDIUMSupplierCambodia manufacturing25%
    10-K Item 1A: '24.6% in Cambodia'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States66%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The United States accounted for approximately 66.2% of our global sales in fiscal year 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Macd
1.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.96Resistance $41.18

Price Targets

$36
$40
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $38.20, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.55. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the SHOO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.54 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $35.55. Stop-loss: $35.55.

What are the risks of investing in SHOO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%); Thin upside margin: 3.4%.

Is SHOO overvalued or undervalued?

Steven Madden, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 36.5 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHOO?

15 analysts cover SHOO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Steven Madden, Ltd. do?Steven Madden designs and sources footwear, handbags, and apparel under Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, Dolce Vita, Betsey...

Steven Madden designs and sources footwear, handbags, and apparel under Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Carvela, and other brands globally. Wholesale (66.1% of 2025 revenue) and DTC (33.4%) channels; U.S. accounted for ~66.2% of global sales, with no single customer exceeding 10% of net revenue.

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