Steven Madden holds an industry-leading growth rank within its peer group and a strong Piotroski financial-health score of 9/9, but near-term risk reward is unfavorable with analyst targets already reached and a negative asymmetry ratio, making the stock a hold rather than an addition.
Thesis pillars
- Piotroski Financial Health→Stable
- China Supply Chain Concentration→Stable
- Industry Growth Leadership→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Sell if holding. At $39.70, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%).
Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets footwear, accessories, and apparel across brands including Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger (acquired May 2025), Dolce Vita, and others through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels globally. Wholesale generated 66.1% of 2025 total... Read more
Sell if holding. At $39.70, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Steven Madden, Ltd.
About Steven Madden, Ltd.
Steven Madden, Ltd. generated wholesale revenue of approximately $1.68 billion (66.1% of 2025 total revenue) and direct-to-consumer revenue of $845.7 million (33.4%), with licensing representing 0.5%. At December 31, 2025, the company operated 399 brick-and-mortar retail stores including 290 outside the United States, plus 133 international concessions and seven branded e-commerce websites. Approximately 6,300 employees were on staff globally, 2,100 in the United States and 4,200 internationally.
Products are sourced entirely from independent overseas manufacturers — the company owns no manufacturing facilities — with 56.1% of total 2025 purchases manufactured in China and 24.6% in Cambodia, exposing gross margins to ongoing U.S. tariff actions on both countries. The Kurt Geiger brand, a London-based accessible luxury accessories and footwear label founded in 1963, was acquired in May 2025 through the purchase of Mercury Acquisitions Topco Limited, financed with a $300 million term loan and $250 million revolving credit facility, with $240 million in term loan outstanding at December 31, 2025. The Wholesale Footwear segment (40.9% of revenue) and Wholesale Accessories/Apparel (25.3%) sell through more than 2,000 retailers including Nordstrom, Macy's, Dillard's, TJX Companies, and Amazon. No single customer accounted for more than 10% of total 2025 revenue.
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The tariff environment poses a material challenge: 56.1% of purchases from China and 24.6% from Cambodia creates compounding exposure in countries facing significant U.S. trade action. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down certain tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act; the Administration subsequently announced a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The 10-K acknowledges that the ultimate impact on sales volumes, gross margins, and financial condition remains uncertain and could be material, with no assurance that sourcing diversification or supplier negotiations will fully offset current or future tariff effects.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
From Steven Madden, Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Steven Madden, Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Steven Madden (SHOO) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Steven Madden (SHOO) Q1 earnings and revenues top estimates - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Steven Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO) Issues FY 2026 Earnings Guidance - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Steven Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO) Beats Q1 CY2026 Sales Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Steven Madden (SHOO) Reports Q1: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T14:32:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierChina manufacturing56%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 56.1% of our total purchases were manufactured in China and 24.6% in Cambodia'
- MEDIUMSupplierCambodia manufacturing25%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 56.1% of our total purchases were manufactured in China and 24.6% in Cambodia'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States66%10-K Item 1A: 'The United States accounted for approximately 66.2% of our global sales in fiscal year 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $39.70, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.96. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $40.70 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $37.96. Stop-loss: $37.96.
Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Steven Madden, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 37.7 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover SHOO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Steven Madden, Ltd. do?Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets footwear, accessories, and apparel across brands including Steve...
Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets footwear, accessories, and apparel across brands including Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger (acquired May 2025), Dolce Vita, and others through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels globally. Wholesale generated 66.1% of 2025 total revenue; the company operated 399 brick-and-mortar stores (290 outside the US) and seven e-commerce platforms at year-end 2025.