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OMABGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro Buy Wait5.5·$104.40+0.94%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte is a high-quality Mexican airport operator with a 43% return on equity, 33% net margin, and strong momentum indicators including a volume surge of 2.3 times average, though consecutive earnings misses and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target limit entry appeal at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Returns Quality ProfileStable
  • Strong Volume Momentum SurgeDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro (OMAB) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airports & Air Services

Earnings in 0 days (2026-07-27). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $98.12. At $104.40 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $98.12 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to develop, operate, and maintain airports in Mexico. It operates 13 international airports in Monterrey; Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Zihuatanejo; Chihuahua, Culiacán, Durango,... Read more

$104.40+4.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#3 of 5 Airports & Air Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield55.64%
IncomeYield5.59%(5y avg 3.78%)Payout84.21%at-risk
Entry $98.12(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $93.55Target $108.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$124.78+19.5%8 analysts
$108.55our TP
$104.40price
$124.78mean
$150

Wait for pullback to $98.12. At $104.40 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $98.12 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 2026today· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.0%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.4
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA1.5
Profit Mgn32.6%
ROE43.4%
Rev Growth6.9%
Beta0.34
Dividend5.59%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.2
Revenue Growth
4.2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 0 daysDividend: 5.6%
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $102.30Resistance $115.57

Price Targets

$94
$98
$109
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OMAB stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $98.12. At $104.40 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $98.12 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $108.55 (+4.0%), stop $93.55 (−11.6%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OMAB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $108.55 (+4.0% upside). Target $108.55 (+4.0%), stop $93.55 (−11.6%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $93.55.

What are the risks of investing in OMAB?

Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is OMAB overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OMAB?

20 analysts cover OMAB with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $125.

What does Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro do?Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to develop,...

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to develop, operate, and maintain airports in Mexico. It operates 13 international airports in Monterrey; Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Zihuatanejo; Chihuahua, Culiacán, Durango, San Luis Potosí, Tampico, Torreón, and Zacatecas; and Ciudad Juárez and Reynosa cities. The company is also involved in leasing of space to restaurants and retailers. In addition, it engages in the operation of parking facilities; OMA Carga business comprising warehouses that provides cargo logistics services, such as storage, handling, custody maneuvers, loading and unloading, x-ray screening of exports, and other services; the Terminal 2 NH Collection Hotel; and the Hilton Garden Inn Hotel at the Monterrey airport; and non-permanent ground transportation. Further, the company provides aeronautical services, which include passenger, aircraft landing and parking, airport security, passenger walkway, and complementary services; car parking; checked baggage-screening services; and construction services. Additionally, it builds and operates industrial park at the Monterrey airport. Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

Related stocks: CAAP (Corporacion America Airports SA) · JOBY (Joby Aviation, Inc.) · ASR (Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste) · PAC (Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific)
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