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OLNOlin CorporationSell4.8·$20.04+2.30%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Olin Corporation is a chemical producer trading below minimum quality thresholds with zero scores on return on equity, gross margin, and net margin, yet carries a PEG of 0.17 and elevated short interest of 14% alongside a put/call ratio of 1.95, suggesting the market is deeply skeptical of a margin recovery that analysts are pricing in.

Thesis pillars

  • High Implied Volatility UncertaintyStable
  • Margin Collapse Quality FailureStable
  • Elevated Short And Put CallStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Olin Corporation (OLN) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.04: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of 2025 sales), Winchester ammunition (26%), and Epoxy (20%), operating across the U.S., Europe, and Latin America. Revenue comes from chemical sales to... Read more

$20.04+20.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#9 of 15 Chemicals
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield21.38%
IncomeYield3.99%(5y avg 2.11%)Payout173.91%at-risk
Stop $18.67Target $24.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$27.64+37.9%14 analysts
$24.05our TP
$20.04price
$27.64mean
$39

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.04: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Olin Corporation

Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)21.6
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn-2.8%
ROE-9.8%
Rev Growth-3.7%
Beta1.21
Dividend3.99%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV72%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerU.S. government13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to all U.S. government agencies and sales under U.S. government contracting activities in total accounted for approximately 13% of sales in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOW
    On April 30, 2026, Olin shareholders approved the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan (2026 LTIP), effective immediately, authorizing equity compensation grants to directors, officers, and key employees. No officer departure involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.1
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.1
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.25Resistance $26.82

Price Targets

$19
$24
A.Upside+20.0%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.04: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $18.67. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.05 (+20.0% upside). Prior stop was $18.67. Stop-loss: $18.67.

What are the risks of investing in OLN?

Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).

Is OLN overvalued or undervalued?

Olin Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 21.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OLN?

20 analysts cover OLN with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Olin Corporation do?Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of...

Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (54% of 2025 sales), Winchester ammunition (26%), and Epoxy (20%), operating across the U.S., Europe, and Latin America. Revenue comes from chemical sales to industrial customers and distribution to commercial and military ammunition buyers; approximately 32% of 2025 sales were international.

Related stocks: WLKP (Westlake Chemical Partners LP) · LXU (LSB Industries, Inc.) · REX (REX American Resources Corporat) · VHI (Valhi, Inc.) · MEOH (Methanex Corporation)
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